Time to Panic Over Brazil? (Brief MFLDX quote)

scott

Time to panic over Brazil?
“Brazil’s capital markets appear to be suffering from a sudden flight of capital," says Michael Shaoul, warning of a danger of "abrupt collapse in investor confidence ... Brazil should be watched closely in the days ahead."


http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/12/03/are-investors-fleeing-brazil-after-the-q3-gdp-contraction/

Personally, buying Brazil again is starting to seem appealing. The country does seem to be in the midst of a real mess, but buying some of the names with a longish-term time horizon - who knows. World Cup and Olympics over next few years.

BobC

I am certainly not as intelligent as the folks at Marketfield, and they have usually been pretty good at their fund holding calls. But they have been banging the drum against EMs for a long time now, especially Brazil, Turkey and China. In the meantime, some EM managers like Thornburg THDIX, Oppenheimer ODVYX, Wasatch WAFMX, and Calamos CNWIX (especially Thornburg and Wasatch) have done well for their shareholders. Granted they have avoided the pitfalls, some of which Marketfield has discussed. In the end, it brings home once again the importance of who is governing the countries and the economic policies they choose to follow. The change in Brazil's government has not produced the continuation of prosperity that was hoped for because of the party's reversal of a number of the prior administration's stances. While I do not always personally agree with MFLDX's specific positions, the fund has done a bang-up job, and I have no problem owning a fund that is sometimes contrary to my macro views.