Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I don't think the market has peaked (depends on time horizon, I suppose), but I think it has gotten ahead of itself. You had a point where the real estate market in many areas just ran out of sellers when prices hit levels they did last Winter.
Still, despite that, you continue to have lower rates of first-time buyers and mortgages. You have institutional buyers (Blackstone securitizing rentals, Oaktree selling) getting out.
I think what would probably be most healthy for the market would be to have a cooling off period that will likely involve a moderate decline. The best case scenario would be a cooling off period and possibly one of decent length, some institutional selling and hopefully more "long-term" owners able to come in and buy over time. Eventually, rather than the kind of rises we've seen lately, rises that are more single digit y/o/y.
In other words, a period of slow drift lower until the hope is that more long-term owners are able to come in on that and make a purchase. Meanwhile, rents continue to go higher.
The buyers have peaked. Which will be reflected in the market place, eh?
Still a lot of delevering in place, low wages and benefits (if any) for many in this country.
Habits like owning a home, that have been in place for generations; may be moving to the downside. Mobility of work and the workers will likely have an effect going forward.
Owning a home and all that comes with such a lifetime adventure is not the greatest thing that one may pursue.
Large scale social habits take many years to change. Owning a home may be an area that will find this habit change in this country.
Whether a young person really wants to own a home (their parents and/or grandparents social habit) may be in place for many at this time; but the money and decent jobs are not.
Reply to @catch22: Excellent point catch. Today's workforce is shifting to a global workplace instead of local. Those who work abroad or travel a lot may not want a house at this point in their lives.
Reply to @catch22: You put it really, really well.
Plus: "Whether a young person really wants to own a home (their parents and/or grandparents social habit) may be in place for many at this time; but the money and decent jobs are not. "
And whether or not they have a ginormous student loan debt.
Comments
Here is the PDF version:
http://americancenturyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/IN-FLY-77570v2.pdf
Still, despite that, you continue to have lower rates of first-time buyers and mortgages. You have institutional buyers (Blackstone securitizing rentals, Oaktree selling) getting out.
I think what would probably be most healthy for the market would be to have a cooling off period that will likely involve a moderate decline. The best case scenario would be a cooling off period and possibly one of decent length, some institutional selling and hopefully more "long-term" owners able to come in and buy over time. Eventually, rather than the kind of rises we've seen lately, rises that are more single digit y/o/y.
In other words, a period of slow drift lower until the hope is that more long-term owners are able to come in on that and make a purchase. Meanwhile, rents continue to go higher.
Still a lot of delevering in place, low wages and benefits (if any) for many in this country.
Habits like owning a home, that have been in place for generations; may be moving to the downside. Mobility of work and the workers will likely have an effect going forward.
Owning a home and all that comes with such a lifetime adventure is not the greatest thing that one may pursue.
Large scale social habits take many years to change. Owning a home may be an area that will find this habit change in this country.
Whether a young person really wants to own a home (their parents and/or grandparents social habit) may be in place for many at this time; but the money and decent jobs are not.
Take care,
Catch
Plus: "Whether a young person really wants to own a home (their parents and/or grandparents social habit) may be in place for many at this time; but the money and decent jobs are not. "
And whether or not they have a ginormous student loan debt.