Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @ MJG: Re "I'm sure you all can find more definitive hard data correlations to buttress positions on this matter ...."
MJG, I rather enjoyed the wide variety of thoughts and reactions here following what most financial pundits considered a surprise Fed announcement. And, I very much appreciate Scott's posting of the thread. So, I'd take exception to your assertion - stated or otherwise - that every opinion voiced here needs to be corroborated by data, statistics, studies or somehow reduced to "just the facts."
In the world in which we live knee-jerk reactions, emotional responses, political leanings, cynicism over motives, and petty jealousies all play a part in, and exert a profound influence over, the financial markets. To dismiss opinions from a group of obviously learned and informed board members as "unsupported" (and I presume unworthy of your attention) and to attempt to reduce such a complex matter to "just the facts" does a disservice to all who have contributed.
I'm not convinced every question asked or opinion ventured needs to be satisfied in some way with a "correct" answer. For most of us there's much to be gleaned from the opinions, reactions and conjecture regardless of the "answer." Quoting Henry Drummond in Jerome Lawrence and Robert E Lee's classic "Inherit The Wind": "The man who has everything figured out is probably a fool. College examinations notwithstanding, it takes a very smart fella to say “I don’t know the answer!' "
Thank you for taking time to respond to my missive.
I think you overreacted to what I intended as a rather innocuous request for supportive documentation. I intended to assert nothing other than I favor data accumulation and inspection prior to a decision. Sometimes data is not available or accessible. Nowadays, in the investment world, it more often is.
I too value the diversity of opinions nicely expressed on this forum. In my mind, there is little doubt that these are valuable and worthwhile opinions. However, I firmly believe that the various opinions would be even more valuable and more worthwhile if they were bolstered by statistical data. My investment philosophy and strategy have been influenced by MFO member postings.
There is much danger in allowing “ … knee-jerk reactions, emotional responses, political leanings, cynicism over motives, and petty jealousies” to seep into the investment decision making process.
Daniel Kahneman cautioned against these decision traps in his classic “Thinking, Fast and Slow” tome. Thinking and reacting reflexively might be necessary under some circumstances, but investment decisions are definitely not in that category. Sound investment decision making should be a reflective proposition and that means searching for reliable data.
The marketplace is awash with statistical data. I would be shocked if you did not seek and exploit that data when making a mutual fund selection and/or an entry/exit judgment. Whatever your selection criteria, they must surely incorporate data sets like relative costs, fund turnover rates, manager tenure, and recent excess returns as illustrations of the process. I am continually baffled by some MFO members who challenge this logical observation. We use data for all sorts of uncertain decisions far beyond the investment universe.
Most assuredly, I share your observation that “ I’m not convinced every question asked or opinion ventured needs to be satisfied in some way with a "correct" answer”. I attempted to make that same point clear when I said: “ It is likely that there is no absolutely “right” answer.” We are in complete agreement on this matter.
Perhaps I’m being a tad too sensitive, but the inclusion of your closing quote from the “Inherit the Wind” authors (I never read the book) implies that I’m a know everything type. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody knows my shortcomings better than I do, except maybe my friends. I seek help in almost everything I do. I highly appreciate diverse opinions, although I do value some more than others.
Perhaps the many instances in my recent post that acknowledged my discomfort with not being familiar with and understanding FOMC’s actions escaped your notice. I seriously want to learn. That’s precisely and only why I specifically asked for MFO members help in this area.
Sometimes my writings are not as precise as they could be. Alternately, sometimes readers inject deeper motives and meanings that were not really baked into the posting. We have a shared responsibility to be flexible in these assessments, especially since the involved parties are relative unknowns to each other. Misinterpretations happen. That’s why data is so important.
Hank, I do wish you happiness and success.
The good news is that it’s time for Sunday night football fun.
Comments
MJG, I rather enjoyed the wide variety of thoughts and reactions here following what most financial pundits considered a surprise Fed announcement. And, I very much appreciate Scott's posting of the thread. So, I'd take exception to your assertion - stated or otherwise - that every opinion voiced here needs to be corroborated by data, statistics, studies or somehow reduced to "just the facts."
In the world in which we live knee-jerk reactions, emotional responses, political leanings, cynicism over motives, and petty jealousies all play a part in, and exert a profound influence over, the financial markets. To dismiss opinions from a group of obviously learned and informed board members as "unsupported" (and I presume unworthy of your attention) and to attempt to reduce such a complex matter to "just the facts" does a disservice to all who have contributed.
I'm not convinced every question asked or opinion ventured needs to be satisfied in some way with a "correct" answer. For most of us there's much to be gleaned from the opinions, reactions and conjecture regardless of the "answer." Quoting Henry Drummond in Jerome Lawrence and Robert E Lee's classic "Inherit The Wind": "The man who has everything figured out is probably a fool. College examinations notwithstanding, it takes a very smart fella to say “I don’t know the answer!' "
Hi Hank,
Thank you for taking time to respond to my missive.
I think you overreacted to what I intended as a rather innocuous request for supportive documentation. I intended to assert nothing other than I favor data accumulation and inspection prior to a decision. Sometimes data is not available or accessible. Nowadays, in the investment world, it more often is.
I too value the diversity of opinions nicely expressed on this forum. In my mind, there is little doubt that these are valuable and worthwhile opinions. However, I firmly believe that the various opinions would be even more valuable and more worthwhile if they were bolstered by statistical data. My investment philosophy and strategy have been influenced by MFO member postings.
There is much danger in allowing “ … knee-jerk reactions, emotional responses, political leanings, cynicism over motives, and petty jealousies” to seep into the investment decision making process.
Daniel Kahneman cautioned against these decision traps in his classic “Thinking, Fast and Slow” tome. Thinking and reacting reflexively might be necessary under some circumstances, but investment decisions are definitely not in that category. Sound investment decision making should be a reflective proposition and that means searching for reliable data.
The marketplace is awash with statistical data. I would be shocked if you did not seek and exploit that data when making a mutual fund selection and/or an entry/exit judgment. Whatever your selection criteria, they must surely incorporate data sets like relative costs, fund turnover rates, manager tenure, and recent excess returns as illustrations of the process. I am continually baffled by some MFO members who challenge this logical observation. We use data for all sorts of uncertain decisions far beyond the investment universe.
Most assuredly, I share your observation that “ I’m not convinced every question asked or opinion ventured needs to be satisfied in some way with a "correct" answer”. I attempted to make that same point clear when I said: “ It is likely that there is no absolutely “right” answer.” We are in complete agreement on this matter.
Perhaps I’m being a tad too sensitive, but the inclusion of your closing quote from the “Inherit the Wind” authors (I never read the book) implies that I’m a know everything type. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody knows my shortcomings better than I do, except maybe my friends. I seek help in almost everything I do. I highly appreciate diverse opinions, although I do value some more than others.
Perhaps the many instances in my recent post that acknowledged my discomfort with not being familiar with and understanding FOMC’s actions escaped your notice. I seriously want to learn. That’s precisely and only why I specifically asked for MFO members help in this area.
Sometimes my writings are not as precise as they could be. Alternately, sometimes readers inject deeper motives and meanings that were not really baked into the posting. We have a shared responsibility to be flexible in these assessments, especially since the involved parties are relative unknowns to each other. Misinterpretations happen. That’s why data is so important.
Hank, I do wish you happiness and success.
The good news is that it’s time for Sunday night football fun.
Best wishes.
I have noticed that some of the posts have been deleted.
Regards,
Ted