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It just does not seem like 2007 to me...not yet anyway.
Home and hotel construction only now starting to gain traction here in California. But I still see lot of empty store fronts.
Car purchases up. RV purchases up. Will grant you that.
Not a lot of homes on market, but those that are sell quickly. I'm hearing more stories of bidding wars. Hmm, so that too is like 2007. But refi's have stopped with increasing rates. And, I don't see a lot of folks buying multiple homes.
Jobs continue to increase.
Market up, sure, but not wildly on historic basis and there still seem to be some value opportunities.
I guess, bottom-line, is I don't see the ubiquitous euphoria of 2007...in any market. There's more caution, which is probably a good thing, to not get over-extended.
Certainly, I'd like to see continued steady growth.
BTW. Does anybody really like Rick Santelli yelling every morning?
It's not that it's 2007 as much as the idea that something that symbolizes the peak of 2007 being offered up again makes me a tad concerned about jumping in much further (not that I was really planning on investing much in the near term anyways.)
As for housing, I continue to believe that the bottom has been seen but things have gotten ahead of themselves. Too much institutional money and a good deal of that appears to be stepping towards the sidelines (either securitizing rentals or single family rental REITS that were thought to be the New Big Thing and now are under their IPO price - see SBY.)
The underlying numbers are also rather remarkable, with 60% of purchases as cash vs something around 15-20% in 2007. Less first time buyers ("In May, first-time buyers accounted for 28% of existing-home purchases, down from 34% a year before and 36% two years ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.). Mortgage process is difficult in part because banks don't want to have the loan put back to them.
I think we live in a reality where there's continued erosion of the middle class and the lower class isn't doing well. Not to say that that continue for a while without more noticeable upset, but in the meantime, invest accordingly. I think there are interesting themes and interesting stories and people have to take a long-term view because there's too much noise and things like 26-year-olds on twitter trying to take down a stock with the report they haven't even put out yet.
"RV purchases up."
RV REIT Equity Lifestyle Properties seems to be buying new properties.
" hotel construction "
Hotels are interesting to me from the standpoint of major city hotels and space/supply constraints, but they're the first thing to tank when there's the slightest hint of a downturn.
" But refi's have stopped with increasing rates'
CNBC anchors continuing to scream about how 4.5% in "low historically", but of course don't question why demand dries up when rates move towards 5%. Have older family members who talk about paying high single digits (8%+) in the late 70's/early 80's and how they would "have to make a decision right then and there because if they didn't, someone else would."
----
Oh, but what does all that matter when Twitter just announced it's IPO. lol.
Comments
Home and hotel construction only now starting to gain traction here in California. But I still see lot of empty store fronts.
Car purchases up. RV purchases up. Will grant you that.
Not a lot of homes on market, but those that are sell quickly. I'm hearing more stories of bidding wars. Hmm, so that too is like 2007. But refi's have stopped with increasing rates. And, I don't see a lot of folks buying multiple homes.
Jobs continue to increase.
Market up, sure, but not wildly on historic basis and there still seem to be some value opportunities.
I guess, bottom-line, is I don't see the ubiquitous euphoria of 2007...in any market. There's more caution, which is probably a good thing, to not get over-extended.
Certainly, I'd like to see continued steady growth.
BTW. Does anybody really like Rick Santelli yelling every morning?
It's not that it's 2007 as much as the idea that something that symbolizes the peak of 2007 being offered up again makes me a tad concerned about jumping in much further (not that I was really planning on investing much in the near term anyways.)
As for housing, I continue to believe that the bottom has been seen but things have gotten ahead of themselves. Too much institutional money and a good deal of that appears to be stepping towards the sidelines (either securitizing rentals or single family rental REITS that were thought to be the New Big Thing and now are under their IPO price - see SBY.)
The underlying numbers are also rather remarkable, with 60% of purchases as cash vs something around 15-20% in 2007. Less first time buyers ("In May, first-time buyers accounted for 28% of existing-home purchases, down from 34% a year before and 36% two years ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.). Mortgage process is difficult in part because banks don't want to have the loan put back to them.
I think we live in a reality where there's continued erosion of the middle class and the lower class isn't doing well. Not to say that that continue for a while without more noticeable upset, but in the meantime, invest accordingly. I think there are interesting themes and interesting stories and people have to take a long-term view because there's too much noise and things like 26-year-olds on twitter trying to take down a stock with the report they haven't even put out yet.
"RV purchases up."
RV REIT Equity Lifestyle Properties seems to be buying new properties.
" hotel construction "
Hotels are interesting to me from the standpoint of major city hotels and space/supply constraints, but they're the first thing to tank when there's the slightest hint of a downturn.
" But refi's have stopped with increasing rates'
CNBC anchors continuing to scream about how 4.5% in "low historically", but of course don't question why demand dries up when rates move towards 5%. Have older family members who talk about paying high single digits (8%+) in the late 70's/early 80's and how they would "have to make a decision right then and there because if they didn't, someone else would."
----
Oh, but what does all that matter when Twitter just announced it's IPO. lol.