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Hopefully all this incessant fear over September tapering is bullish

JunksterJunkster
edited August 2013 in Fund Discussions
Recently all I've heard about are the negative consequences over Fed tapering. The market has fallen several percent the past few weeks and this week there was a drastic shift in bearishness in some of the investor polls ala NAAIM and AAII. Guru and TV business pundit Ralph Acampora is now looking for much more downside in the Dow. Normally this bearishness resolves to the upside instead. So we shall see. I am still long LGND with some new money directed to VIAB, but now NPSP is my largest equity holding with ETGLX as my largest (and only) equity fund holding not just due to how well it held during the recent swoon, but because its largest holding is also NPSP. Still hold some floating rate in NFRIX but sold much of it recently.

I never buy a fund based on recommendations on this board but kudos to whoever mentioned ETGLX here a few months back. Please whoever you were stand up and take a bow. It's one of the select few equity funds at all time highs Friday. It's so refreshing to see someone actually recommend a fund that increases one's retirement nest egg instead of the usual groupthink losing or underperforming funds ala AQRNX, SFGIX, PAUDX, and ARIVX to name just a few.

Comments

  • Art
    edited August 2013
    Funny you should mention ETGLX. I was just using M* fund screener looking for funds with <60 stocks, top 40% in it's category last 1 and 3 years, manager tenure of at least 3 years, NL and available at Fidelity NTF and there was a fund I had never heard of, ETGLX. Results were 34 funds.

    Art
  • CharlesCharles
    edited August 2013
    Ouch Junkster, that's smart.

    Dr. Kuruvilla's impressive academic credentials certainly paying off this year with ETGLX's pharmaceutical holdings. (I like where he got his masters.)

    But I'm sure back in late 2011, you would not have been feeling so good watching ETGLX drop 26%, while AKREX (another "group think" darling) dropped only 7%.

    Today, both are mid cap 3 year MFO Great Owls, with AKREX being less volatile of the two:

    image

    Look, as much as I'm coming to like trend following, I try not to overly apply or advocate it. Nor do I let it dissuade me from acknowledging good fund managers like Asness, Foster, Arnott, Cinnamond.

    Everybody spends time in the barrel. The trick is not make a habit of it.

    AQRNX, SFGIX, PAUDX have only struggled since May-ish, after many months of doing very well.

    If three years from now AQRNX, SFGIX, PAUDX, and ARIVX have under-performed, then your criticism would be justified. But three months? Come on.
  • hank
    edited August 2013
    Re: Acampora: A colorful personality who sometimes graced Rukeyser's old set and who continues to pop up now & then. Don't know much about his market calls. Like the rest of us, he's probably right about as often as he's wrong. But, if you Google "Ralph make em poorer" his name invariably surfaces:-)
  • JunksterJunkster
    Reply to @Charles: Charles, time is irrelevant to me, but losing money isn't. I began trading funds in the late 80s and I can say with 100% certainty I have never sat through a loss like AQRNX has sustained the past several months. Small losses have a way of becoming bigger losses and that is no way to accumulate wealth. So that is why I cut a losing position as soon as possible. Or for that matter exit a winning position whenever it reacts X percentage amount from any new equity high.

    AKREX is a great fund and not a groupthink fund.
  • slick
    Reply to @hank:
    I used to call him Ralph Makem poorer, he has been gone quite a while from CNBC, I guess they need to drag some old wood out of the pile now and then. Haven't heard opinions lately from Abby Joseph Cohen, another one Rukeyser loved, but who remained bullish a bit too long in the early 2000s. I'll bet CNBC has her on shortly from that same woodpile.
  • hank
    edited August 2013
    Reply to @slick: Ralph Makem Poorer sounds like a REAL name:-)
    And ... I call her Gabby Joseph. I swear she'd dance & sing on deck of the Titanic.

    (Hope nobody takes this too seriously. Both are believed to be fine and sane individuals. It's the "media persona" we're poking fun at.)
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