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An equity correction feels so very overdue. But will we get another head-fake this week - or a real pullback (remember those) of say 12-25% ?
I've heard mention of the Hindenburg Omen, tales of Fed tapering due to "strong" economic reports, a slowdown in worldwide consumer spending, lack of corporate earnings growth, etc. Even that moron Cramer is getting a bit bearish. Anybody BULLISH here?
Over the next couple of years, yes, for sure... especially if Europe is really heading out of recession. We already are, although slowly, and if they join in, there could be a pretty solid bull going here, because it should be a fairly long and slow climb back to a really vigorous world economy. Seems to me that would be a lot more solid, healthy and sustainable than a "flash" economy built on synthetic bubbles.
But there's sure to be some lurches along the way... expecting straight up is pretty silly.
Basically, the assumption is that the presidential election cycle dictates much of the market action and based on past history the market will be flat to down from now until Sept 2014. Of course, take that with a grain of salt, remember, "sell in may" would not have been prudent this year.
MJG - the GMO guys are big proponents of this cycle. Maybe current their 7 yr cycle ends at the bottom of the presidential cycle.
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But there's sure to be some lurches along the way... expecting straight up is pretty silly.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/year-2-in-4-year-presidential-cycle,520e459dda27f5d9d00c7d7b
Basically, the assumption is that the presidential election cycle dictates much of the market action and based on past history the market will be flat to down from now until Sept 2014. Of course, take that with a grain of salt, remember, "sell in may" would not have been prudent this year.
MJG - the GMO guys are big proponents of this cycle. Maybe current their 7 yr cycle ends at the bottom of the presidential cycle.