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Interesting update yesterday from M*. AA has been on their 5 star stock list for months.Valuation 08/07/13
Our fair value estimate for Alcoa is $14 per share. Although Alcoa is currently navigating a low-price environment for aluminum, the industry is cyclical and our model assumes that sales volume and pricing will gradually rebound in the long run. Indeed, as Alcoa and other industry players cut production capacity via strategic plant closures, downward pricing pressure on aluminum will gradually be relieved, thereby offering the potential for margin expansion. For the time being, though, only the Engineered Products and Solutions segment offers double-digit after-tax operating margins (12.2% in first-quarter 2013). In fact, margins associated with the segment have expanded each year since fiscal 2009. No other segment currently offers after-tax operating margins above 7%. Although we assert that aluminum prices will remain low in the near term, we assume a long-term aluminum price of $2,400 per metric ton (in real terms) and a long-term alumina price of $450 per metric ton (in real terms). In addition to these price forecasts, we apply a 12% cost of equity assumption and a 9% weighted average cost of capital. The exit multiple in our discounted cash-flow model is 7 times enterprise value/EBITDA.
Alcoa's initiatives cannot fully offset weak aluminum pricing.
Analyst Note 08/06/13
We are placing our fair value estimate for Alcoa under review as we transfer coverage to a new analyst. We anticipate that our fair value estimate will decrease in light of lower than anticipated near-term aluminum pricing, a reduction in expectations for near-term alumina and aluminum shipment growth, and declining assumptions for margins in the primary metals and flat-rolled business units. Additionally, we are reassessing our narrow moat rating, as prevailing low aluminum prices will likely inhibit Alcoa's ability to provide returns on invested capital in excess of its cost of capital in the coming years. We will publish an updated fair value estimate within a few days.
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Comments
I don't know, I have my views on a number of long-term themes and have invested as such.
As for Alcoa, I cannot imagine a thesis for why to invest in Alcoa. Maybe valuation - it's trading at less than book value - but what would be the catalyst? I just don't see anything on the horizon.
ATI Allegheny is another one that appeals to me. Its plan forward is to focus in higher margin specialized metals. Probably smart move given foreign competition. And, the stock is starting to attract some attention.
I think a lot of materials stocks have just done terribly - X, AA, BHP, etc etc etc. A good portion of that is China's believed slowdown, but you note some good positives elsewhere that don't seem to be taken into account.
Valuation certainly is cheap on a number of these names, many of which are trading under book.
I believe you were in a few of these names - if you still are, good luck and hopefully the bounce over the last few days will continue.
The irony is that they rose not on recovering US economy, but on China's.