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I'm not even going to comment on this article. I can provide empirical evidence if I buy a stock, it goes down forever until I sell it and into bankruptcy if I don't. One reason I don't do stocks. Is that "investment news"?
But I do have a question. Why is the author teasing us at the end of the article. If Augusts is the 2nd worst month on average, then which is the first worst month? Or is that such a well known fact only I don't know it?
Reply to @VintageFreak: As I advised in 2012 and again this spring not to sell. I have predicted a banner year for the market. And at year end will be proven correct. Regards, Ted
P.S. Had you listened to my advise Catch22 you would have made over 20% this year, but you didn't Regards, ted
I think what I want to do is sleep soundly, not maximize returns. Hardly about "See You in September" or "Come September" or "August Moon". Everyone only talks about how being out of the market can cost you because of compounding. This is because stock market goes up in the long term.
Well, long term is relative and that statement was made in an era where people had two choices. Be able to have food to eat in retirement or Live in Vegas in retirement. This made it easy to shoot from the hip because the first alternative was a bad one when Social Security was guaranteed to be avalaible.
The "long term" has now been redefined. Experiency two 50% drops in the market in today's times make it difficult to listen and heed to recommendations whether they come from Cramer or Ted. That's why I stay invested in summer in PVFIX and not UAPIX. I either accept an argument or I don't. Either way I should lever myself as much as possible one way or the other. Then why not make the call to invest in 3x bull and 3x bear funds instead of "see market will go up" or "sell in may or go away"?
So IMHO we are debating the wrong point. When you buy will always be more important than What you buy. However that will only be known in hindsight NOT today. I need to be able to sleep TODAY. And I cannot do that by selling in May and going away or staying in the market come what may because one person or another is telling me to do one or the other. I need to find an investment I can stick with. I think that's what MFO is about. It is not about making predictions and then one telling the other "I told you so". That's for CNBC.
Whomever is at 20% YTD would be at least 80% equity, I suspect.
Now, exceptions would be 60-70% equity; but with funds that are currently setting at +35% YTD. I doubt our house will see 80% equity holdings again; until perhaps, in the next life.
I do hope the equity returns hold for the year. Our 529 will be happy and we may have a decent return for the house, in addition. We will settle for this when not being able to give much attention to this area of life.
Was thinking about, but don't have the time; for a write (a kind of 5 year look back), about having sold near 90% of our equity holdings in mid-June of 2008 and then watched prices creep up again until about this date (July 27th) of 2008. 'Caused a bit a head scratching for awhile. Time sure flies along, eh? We sold: FCNTX, FDGRX, FMCSX, VPMCX, VGSTX, REREX, a Delaware sm/mid cap that is now merged into another fund and about 5 other funds I don't recall at this time. Fortunately, at the time, the majority of money had access to stable value acct's. that paid 4.5-5% at the time; and PTTRX was held and kept in another acct. We escaped with a -8% overall.
Well, anyway; hoping equities keep moving along for everyone so invested and when the correction arrives, that all will all be aware of the arriving change and how they choose to handle the situation.
Reply to @Desota: Thanks, I always try and tell it like it is. Unfortunately some people don't want to hear that, and would rather stick their heads in the sand. This market has big Mo to the upside Regards, Ted
Comments
But I do have a question. Why is the author teasing us at the end of the article. If Augusts is the 2nd worst month on average, then which is the first worst month? Or is that such a well known fact only I don't know it?
The song would be: "See You in September".
Take care,
Catch
Regards,
Ted
P.S. Had you listened to my advise Catch22 you would have made over 20% this year, but you didn't
Regards,
ted
Well, long term is relative and that statement was made in an era where people had two choices. Be able to have food to eat in retirement or Live in Vegas in retirement. This made it easy to shoot from the hip because the first alternative was a bad one when Social Security was guaranteed to be avalaible.
The "long term" has now been redefined. Experiency two 50% drops in the market in today's times make it difficult to listen and heed to recommendations whether they come from Cramer or Ted. That's why I stay invested in summer in PVFIX and not UAPIX. I either accept an argument or I don't. Either way I should lever myself as much as possible one way or the other. Then why not make the call to invest in 3x bull and 3x bear funds instead of "see market will go up" or "sell in may or go away"?
So IMHO we are debating the wrong point. When you buy will always be more important than What you buy. However that will only be known in hindsight NOT today. I need to be able to sleep TODAY. And I cannot do that by selling in May and going away or staying in the market come what may because one person or another is telling me to do one or the other. I need to find an investment I can stick with. I think that's what MFO is about. It is not about making predictions and then one telling the other "I told you so". That's for CNBC.
Whomever is at 20% YTD would be at least 80% equity, I suspect.
Now, exceptions would be 60-70% equity; but with funds that are currently setting at +35% YTD.
I doubt our house will see 80% equity holdings again; until perhaps, in the next life.
I do hope the equity returns hold for the year. Our 529 will be happy and we may have a decent return for the house, in addition. We will settle for this when not being able to give much attention to this area of life.
Was thinking about, but don't have the time; for a write (a kind of 5 year look back), about having sold near 90% of our equity holdings in mid-June of 2008 and then watched prices creep up again until about this date (July 27th) of 2008. 'Caused a bit a head scratching for awhile. Time sure flies along, eh?
We sold: FCNTX, FDGRX, FMCSX, VPMCX, VGSTX, REREX, a Delaware sm/mid cap that is now merged into another fund and about 5 other funds I don't recall at this time. Fortunately, at the time, the majority of money had access to stable value acct's. that paid 4.5-5% at the time; and PTTRX was held and kept in another acct. We escaped with a -8% overall.
Well, anyway; hoping equities keep moving along for everyone so invested and when the correction arrives, that all will all be aware of the arriving change and how they choose to handle the situation.
Catch
It feels like things that go bump in the night.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x_t9VCKLXmI&sns=em&desktop_uri=/watch?v=x_t9VCKLXmI&sns=em
Lipper Snapshot PVFIX http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/PVFIX
Regards,
Ted