observation (re: PREMX share price)

MaxBialystock

Closed today at $13.22. I recall that I first bought-in (in a 403b) at $13.26, in July of 2010. Then I rolled it over to an IRA in July or Aug. of 2012, and consolidated one or two other funds (TRP) into it.

There's no practical way I can see to actually figure out EXACTLY where I stand, but I figure I'm still ahead, considering the additions and dividends. (But down over $300.00 just TODAY!) TRP doesn't bother to carry over the information. The computer sees a defunct (403b) account with ZERO in it, and the current Rollover IRA. and for what it's worth, I'll mention that from the mid-May high, this thing is down about 5% for me right now.

I also own TRAMX.

After receiving your input--- many of you responded, thanks--- I'm standing pat. Following my own observation (via Jane Bryant Quinn) that the dividends keep coming in and are not falling apart or shriveling-up. So why panic over the share price? My time horizon on it all is...unlimited. Some days, it's hard to keep perspective, but I'm managing. ..... Anyone else figure there still might be some big "dumb" money yet to arrive at the party? And when it comes to event-driven drops in the Market, well, it's too bad I'm not in control, eh? "Heads would roll."

TSP_Transfer

PREMX not mentioned in particular,but EM Bonds have been hit hard lately and for the full year.The blog even contains the word "panic".
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/06/10/emerging-markets-bond-etf-sees-biggest-selloff-in-a-year/?mod=BOLBlog

MaxBialystock

Yes, those (closed-end) funds have fared even worse. But the opening sentence says: "They're on sale." That's a positive spin, or wishful thinking... I suppose, since I'm not planning to liquidate my portfolio--- period--- then it makes sense to hold on until the cycle switches in my favor again... My TRAMX is miniscule, but offsets the PREMX losses on many days.

hank

Sorry about the hit Max. Generally, the Dollar has been strengthening ths year due to rising U.S. interest rates, speculation about Fed tightening down the road, and likely some other reasons.** Japan's race to debase may also be indirectly helping the Dollar. PREMX does some hedgiing against currency risk, so could be even worse. ... In addition, commodities and gold have been weak which also affects the economies of many emerging markets which are raw materials producers.

PREMX's still cranking out 4-5% (annual) dividends, paid monthly, so there's some consolation there. I haven't held EM funds - either stock or bond - for several years - just too volatile for my taste. I'd agree with you Max, however, that over the very long haul (decades) that's where the growth is. Aside from equities, not much else is faring very well this year either. The schism continues to widen & I suspect equities will tumble eventually. Question is "When?"

**Speaking of "other reasons"- here's one reason the Dollar strengthened today - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-raises-us-credit-outlook-to-stable-2013-06-10?link=MW_latest_news

MaxBialystock

Appreciate the thoughtful reply, Hank. Yes: it does change one's perception of the entire "game," when the decision is made to simply NEVER liquidate the portfolio. As long as the necessary bases are covered in the way they are today, it is satisfying: the prospect of heirs enjoying the nest egg, instead. I may reach a point where I'll begin to take monthly dividends, rather than to continue to reinvest them. But as of right now, it's still too early to even start taking EARLY S.S. at 62 years old.

TSP_Transfer

Like Hank says the EM space is where the growth is.Keep re-investing those monthly divs and through another market cycle you will be rewarded!
From M* Quick Rank
Highest Returning EM Bond Funds

Ticker Name 10 Year
total return

GMCDX GMO Emerging Country Debt III 12.17
LSHIX Loomis Sayles Instl High Income 11.22
AGDAX AllianceBern High Income A 10.64
TGEIX TCW Emerging Markets Income I 10.52
DPHYX Delaware Pooled High-Yield Bond 10.31
FNMIX Fidelity New Markets Income 9.72
SITEX SEI Instl Intl Tr Emerging Markets Dbt A 9.67
FAGIX Fidelity Capital & Income 9.62
MEDAX MFS Emerging Markets Debt A 9.49
CPHYX Principal High Yield A 9.42
FAEMX Fidelity Advisor Emerging Markets Inc T 9.39
FAHDX Fidelity Advisor High Income Advantage A 9.30
FHYTX Federated High Yield Trust Service 9.26
PREMX T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond 9.26

MaxBialystock

You're a ray of sunshine! Thanks for that list. We all can use encouragement, particularly when it is reality-based!!!

ron

10 years is an eternity now, better to use 3-5 years or less for some. I used to say, give a good manager 3 years and if not in top 1/3, get rid of it.

MaxBialystock

OK, ron. Duly noted. I see what you mean... The only fund I've held for 10 years (so far, after starting in '03) is MACSX: Matthews G & I.

scott

EM is getting hit considerably - SE Asia hit last night and S Africa not doing well. Brazil has not been doing well for a while.

TSP_Transfer

Reply to @scott:
My thoughts concerning EM are for the long term.The demographics involved are well documented as to be very favorable for long term economic growth rates in excess of the developed world.EMs have always been much more volitile and most EM funds have standard deviations far greater than US invested funds. The political risk,tax collection,property rights,court systems etc. will continue to be concerns for fund managers,but the rewards involved will always keep managers like Laura Geritz on the road.
http://webreprints.djreprints.com/3140850193084.html

scott

Reply to @TSP_Transfer: Oh, I completely agree with you. You have these giant inflows/outflows over the last several years and those with a long-term view can use these periods as buying opportunities. I continue to have some EM funds, but a few long-term single names.