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Unemployment rate estimates for 2013, 2014

edited May 2013 in Off-Topic
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/labor-force-participation-rate.html

As of December 2013: 6.6% to 7.6%
As of December 2014: 6.0% to 7.2%

Based on these forecasts the Fed is likely to raise interest rates sometime in 2014 (They gave 6.5% target)

Comments

  • Assuming that labor force participation rate remains stable, if the economy improves, is not logical. More people will again try to find work. With 2014 being an election year, I suspect political pressures will affect the Fed, despite its hoped for independence. If the economy is really doing well, the market might withstand a small raise in interest rates, but cynicism suggests changes will occur in mid November. Does the smart money collect profits (if there are any) in October or late September?
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