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Sentiment & Market Indicators, 3/18/26

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 3/18/26
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -21.6% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 18 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 28.81% (oversold)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 29.80% (oversold)
These are contrarian indicators.

INVESTOR CONCERNS: Geopolitical, Fed, dollar, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Russia-Ukraine (211+ wks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 wks; fragile peace), US/Israel-Iran/Lebanon (18 days).
For the Survey wk (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar up.

Strait of Hormuz remains closed for traffic except for a trickle; war is creeping into oil/gas infrastructure. Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%. PPI (wholesale) +3.4%, core +3.9%. S&P & Nasdaq may change indexing rules to lure hot IPOs.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2489/thread

MORE
As the Iran War creeps into oil/gas infrastructure, there is now a huge difference between WTI crude (US) and Brent (Europe). Other Middle Eastern crudes (various grades) are also affected.
Those familiar with oil history may remember that from 2000-2010, WTI traded at premium to brent, but has traded at discount since. It depends on supply and demand and which grade existing refineries can handle - and not on the looks of oil that varies from sweet (WTI) to sour (brent) to tar-y (Canadian).
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Comments

  • MarkMark
    On SeekingAlpha:

    "Investor pessimism has surged to its highest level in recent weeks, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, which now shows a decisive shift toward a bearish outlook.

    For the week ending March 18, more than half, 52% of respondents to be exact, said they hold a bearish outlook over the next six months, marking a notable increase in negative sentiment among individual investors.

    Bullish sentiment remained relatively subdued, with just 30.4% of participants anticipating market gains, while 17.6% expressed a neutral stance. The data underscores a growing sense of caution as market participants reassess risk amid heightened uncertainty fueled by the growing conflict in the Middle East.

    The shift is particularly striking when compared to late February readings. In the week ending February 25—prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran-U.S. war—only 39.8% of surveyed investors identified as bearish. The sharp rise in pessimism since then highlights how quickly sentiment has deteriorated in response to evolving global developments."
  • beebee
    Sentiment Finally Matches Price...
    Commentary from McClellan Week in Charts:
    The remarkable point about the Investors Intelligence survey data is just how precisely it matches the price action, most of the time. Occasionally, though, the sentiment data overshoot what prices have done. I call that a manifestation of "pure" sentiment as opposed to price-induced sentiment. When we see these sentiment overshoots, the message is that the crowd has gone too far in either its enthusiasm or its pessimism, and the stock market usually responds by moving away from that overshoot. That movement tends to continue until sentiment oversteers to get back in step with what prices are doing, and we have seen that happen just now.
    sentiment_finally_matches
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