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Supreme Court strikes down swath of Trump's tariffs

edited 10:26AM in Other Investing
Business Insider

"The Supreme Court struck down a chunk of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policy on Friday, finding a new limit to the expansive presidential powers he has sought. The 6-3 decision centered on the tariffs Trump justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a national security law that allows the president to regulate economic activity during emergencies. Those IEEPA-justified tariffs have been one of Trump's most powerful weapons in his efforts to renegotiate trade agreements around the globe. They include Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs, announced in April, which are at least 10% on nearly every country in the world."

News broke on Bloomberg around 10 AM Friday. It is being reported by other major news organizations - most paywalled. For perspective, it's likely at least some tariffs will continue using different legal routes. By no means fully resolved.
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Comments

  • The Supreme Court and what army is gonna tell the king what to do? This should get interesting…
  • What are the near- and long-term impacts of this on the market, and the US dollar?

    I have no intution here (aside from the fact that Uncle Sam / Uncle Donald owes a lot of people a lot of money)
  • edited 3:32PM
    @hank said:
    it's likely at least some tariffs will continue using different legal routes
    Bessent said exactly that if and when the tariffs got shot down by Supreme Court. Tariffs thus far has little effect on reducing the ballooning deficit, $38 trillions! Tariffs only worsen the affordability situation for all Americans.

    Edit: .
    Treasury secretary says tariff revenue estimates ‘virtually unchanged’ despite legal setback
    Trump cabinet member Scott Bessent has said that the department’s estimates import duty revenue remain “virtually unchanged” since the president has a variety of tools through which he can try to keep tariffs in place on many countries.

    “We will be leveraging Section 232 and Section 301 tariff authorities that have been validated through thousands of legal challenges,” Bessent said in remarks before the Economic Club of Dallas.

    “Treasury’s estimates show that the use of Section 122 authority, combined with potentially enhanced Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026,” he added.

    The comments suggest that the White House will double down on Trump’s tariff policy, seeking alternative ways to keep them in place despite a stinging legal setback and growing dissent over his approach to trade and commerce.
    https://aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/2/20/trump-tariffs-live-us-supreme-court-rules-against-sweeping-global-tariffs?update=4326856

  • edited 11:44AM
    Thanks for the added link @yogibearbull. Other links to news & analysis welcome.

    Impact on markets? Little today. How will increased heated political rhetoric and finger-pointing from politicians and financial interests potentially affected by the ruling weigh on markets? On the surface, lower or fewer tariffs should help U.S. companies that sell a lot of imported goods (Walmart, Amazon)..

    I've long ago given up any rational view of markets. Herd mentality moves assets from one asset class to another. In the meantime, get ready for the equivalent of a rare (sure to be overhyped) cosmic collision Tuesday when Trump delivers his State of the Union. The SC justices normally are seated in the front row. I wouldn't blame them if they walk out. Maybe place a short term wager on CNN, Fox, MSNBC?
  • edited 11:59AM
    There are other mechanisms the administration can use to invoke tariffs.
    Nevertheless, the Supreme Court decision to strike down the IEEPA-based tariffs is a welcome development.
    There was broad executive overreach—these tariffs were obviously illegal.
  • What if....long shot here, but what if Trump is really on board with the SCOTUS shooting down his terrible idea of Tariffs, simply because he finally understands that they do not really help anybody.

    Essentially, he gets a mulligan - he gets off the hook.

    Or is that too rational of a response to be expected from this specific individual?
  • edited 12:39PM
    Question is how does US repay the past tariffs already paid ? Does US taxpayers get a refund on this added-tax on 2025 tax return, say 10% plus interest?

    Edits:. More info on $130 billions refund - messy.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariff-ruling-kicks-off-messy-162117304.html

    It is a 6-3 decision with Kavanaugh, Thomas, and Alito voted against the decision.
  • @JD_co. “He finally understands….?” not likely. It’s more likely he tries to find another way . And I wonder if he adds the 6 supremes to his enemies list.
  • edited 12:08PM
    @JD_co: Trump hates to lose (in fact he never loses, he just walks away), and was planning on releasing tariff dividend checks (whose clawback I suspect he can now blame on the SCOTUS). Further, in initial comments to the press, he is clearly bitter.

    So, I doubt what you propose is a realistic possibility.
  • edited 12:17PM
    Sven said:

    Question is how does US repay the past tariffs already paid ? Does US taxpayers get a refund on this added-tax on 2025 tax return, say 10% plus interest?

    Oh sure, but only if his name (and maybe picture, too) are included on the "refund" checks, delivered to taxpayers along with his propaganda pamphlets. Right before the November elections (so not on 2025 Tax returns)!

    If there is an opportunity to take credit where none is due, this guy will run with it.
  • Two interesting quotes from the AP article linked by YBB:

    "The majority found that it’s unconstitutional for the president to unilaterally set and change tariffs because taxation power clearly belongs to Congress. “The Framers did not vest any part of the taxing power in the Executive Branch,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote."

    "“The tariffs at issue here may or may not be wise policy. But as a matter of text, history, and precedent, they are clearly lawful,” Kavanaugh wrote."

    Are these guys even playing in the same ball game or do they all get a different rule book when appointed to the Supreme Court?
  • For our house, Gorsuch provides the Constitutional baseline, being Congress not an individual.

    Justice Neil Gorsuch joined the majority in striking down the Trump administration's sweeping global tariffs. Gorsuch issued a significant concurring opinion, emphasizing that the power to tax and impose tariffs resides exclusively with Congress under the Constitution.

    Key Statements from Gorsuch's Concurrence

    Congressional Authority: Gorsuch emphasized that the Constitution vests taxing and tariff powers solely in Congress to ensure deliberation and prevent executive overreach.

    The Major Questions Doctrine: He argued that the administration failed to provide "clear statutory authority" for the tariffs, invoking the Major Questions Doctrine.

    "Bulwark of Liberty": In his opinion, Gorsuch described the legislative process as a "bulwark of liberty," suggesting even critics would eventually appreciate the constitutional safeguards.

    Warning Against Executive Overreach: During arguments, he expressed concern that allowing unilateral tariffs under the IEEPA could permit "tariffs on virtually any imports for any emergency".
  • OTOH, Kavanaugh complained that it would be really messy, and gee what about all those trade deals huh?
  • From the WSJ.

    "The 6-3 decision, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, removes a diplomatic tool that Trump
    has aggressively wielded to remake U.S. trade deals and collect tens of billions of dollars from companies
    importing foreign goods. The ruling didn’t address whether the government will have to pay back
    the tariff revenue it already has collected."

    "It is the first time the Supreme Court has definitively struck down one of Trump’s second-term policies.
    In other areas, the court’s conservative majority has so far granted Trump broad latitude
    to deploy executive power in novel ways, but a majority of justices—three conservatives and three liberals—
    said he went too far in enacting his most sweeping tariffs without clear authorization from Congress."

    "Until Trump, no president had invoked the emergency-powers law as a basis to impose tariffs.
    Three different lower courts ruled the tariffs unlawful, including a specialized federal appeals court
    of national jurisdiction that said the emergency-powers law didn’t authorize tariffs of the magnitude Trump imposed."

    "The tariffs before the Supreme Court constituted a large majority of Trump’s duties.
    Over the next decade, the tariffs Trump imposed through his claims of emergency powers
    were expected to raise about $1.5 trillion, according to the Tax Foundation, representing 70% of Trump’s second-term tariffs."
  • edited 1:04PM
    Those trade deals that haven't been written down and ratified yet by countries are probably in limbo.

    This is the nature of governments - leaders negotiate tentative deals that they think would go through, but those countries' parliaments/legislatures must ratify them.

    This applies to US as well where several deals negotiated were left unratified and have no effects.
  • Latest update from NYT.

    "President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s
    ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans,
    potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners."

    "The administration has been preparing for months for the possibility that the court would rule
    against the president and developed contingency plans as a result."

    "One of the tools under discussion is Section 301, a portion of law that allows the U.S. government
    to investigate unfair trade practices and impose tariffs accordingly.
    Mr. Trump used Section 301 to hit China with tariffs during his first term."

    "Another statute, known as Section 122, allows the president to enact a baseline tariff of up to 15 percent
    on all countries to address issues related to the trade deficit, though the taxes on imports
    may only stay in place for 150 days unless Congress votes to extend them."
  • Latest update from NYT.

    "Another statute, known as Section 122, allows the president to enact a baseline tariff of up to 15 percent
    on all countries to address issues related to the trade deficit, though the taxes on imports
    may only stay in place for 150 days unless Congress votes to extend them."

    Not much chance of that working out in an election year.
  • He could just ignore it since the US executive no longer has an effective mechanism and SCOTUS has no enforcement arm. And Congress is useless.
  • edited 1:20PM
    It's interesting to note that this is actually the first time the Supreme Court
    definitively struck down one of the president's second-term policies.
    The court previously granted the president broad latitude to exercize executive power.
  • We're getting new 10% tariffs, under section 122 maybe. These will be on top of any other tariffs that haven't been struck down.
  • Also from the NYT:
    [Justice Kavanaugh] also noted that the administration had used the leverage of tariffs to enter into key trading deals with other nations. Mr. Trump, he wrote, “helped facilitate trade deals worth trillions of dollars — including with foreign nations from China to the United Kingdom to Japan, and more.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/us/politics/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-dissent-refunds.html

    Is he really suggesting that it's okay to break the law if it leads to a supposedly good outcome? If not, then what's the point of this observation?

    Most people support "the ends justify the means" to some extent. Who has not told a "little white lie"? But IMHO this sort of thinking in a legal opinion is beyond the pale.
  • Rule of Law doesn't matter to him/them. They're not restrained o r guided by the Law, but by pretexts of his/their own creation, just the way he "created" the "Emergency" allowing his single-handed tariffs in the first place.

    "Let there be light." ---God.
    "Let there be tariffs." ---Orange Criminal.
  • edited 2:02PM
    Like everyone is pointing out, no one believes that trump will adhere to the rule of law. He will attempt to bypass SCOTUS. Drag it out, and switch up his approach. No doubt why the markets are not reacting more favorably. He has already imposed another 10% globally.

    This will be just another example of trump thinking that no rules, Constitutional or otherwise, apply to him. Only to everybody else.
  • msf said:

    Also from the NYT:

    [Justice Kavanaugh] also noted that the administration had used the leverage of tariffs to enter into key trading deals with other nations. Mr. Trump, he wrote, “helped facilitate trade deals worth trillions of dollars — including with foreign nations from China to the United Kingdom to Japan, and more.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/us/politics/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-dissent-refunds.html

    Is he really suggesting that it's okay to break the law if it leads to a supposedly good outcome? If not, then what's the point of this observation?

    Most people support "the ends justify the means" to some extent. Who has not told a "little white lie"? But IMHO this sort of thinking in a legal opinion is beyond the pale.
    Still skimming the opinions but Beer Googles main crutch seems to be "But it's foreign policy dude. So it's not like all those other major question cases. Duh!"
  • Trump speaks after Supreme Court strikes down his tariffs
    Start watching at 48.10.

  • thanks, but no. More profitable use of time to stick needles into a voodoo doll.
  • msf said:
    Justice Kavanaugh also noted that the administration had used the leverage of tariffs to enter into key trading deals with other nations. Mr. Trump, he wrote, “helped facilitate trade deals worth trillions of dollars — including with foreign nations from China to the United Kingdom to Japan, and more.


    Is he really suggesting that it's okay to break the law if it leads to a supposedly good outcome? If not, then what's the point of this observation?

    Most people support "the ends justify the means" to some extent. Who has not told a "little white lie"? But IMHO this sort of thinking in a legal opinion is beyond the pale.

    @msf: Exactly, sir.
  • Yes, indeed. A true, unprincipled Orange approach.
  • 11:19AM Flag
    msf said:
    Justice Kavanaugh also noted that the administration had used the leverage of tariffs to enter into key trading deals with other nations. Mr. Trump, he wrote, “helped facilitate trade deals worth trillions of dollars — including with foreign nations from China to the United Kingdom to Japan, and more.
    Classical gangster move to coerce others to accept your terms (highlighted in bold). French president Macron suggested EU to use Anti-coersion Instrument (ACI) to counter US during the broader Europe tariffs and Greenland discussion.
    https://independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/eu-anti-coercion-instrument-greenland-trump-b2903998.html



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