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Would love to find a collection (maybe a mutual fund or etf) that holds a number of these PMining or PMetal companies that have solid business fundamentals and pay a nice dividend. VGPMX has a TTM (Trailing Twelve month yield) of 3.27%. BGEIX (1.17%).
Individually, Newmont Mining (NEM) pays a 4.5% dividend...down 42% over the last 3 years...and still falling. FCX pays a dividend of #.9% and is down about 50% from its high.
Just got back from the Hard Assets conf in NYC where I met Old Nick. Sponsors and attendees off about 2/3 from previous years. Only the hard corps left. Heard a lot of quality speakers. Ian McAvity (one of the originals with Central Fund CEF and a chartist) is still bullish but wants to see it bounce in the nonce. Sees support at ~~~1320 and 950 and resistance at 1520 and 1600. As a chartist he's a bit concerned about the technicals but still bullish on the unchanged fundamentals. Referred to this 20% correction as a 500 ton GLD smack down.
VanEeden was the only bear last year and was therefore given greater heed this. Actually "bullish" and thinks the bottom may be in due to the conference turnout. That said, sees the actual value of gold as around 950 or so. Doesn't see inflation as an issue (thinks the Fed has sufficient ammo to deal with it unless rates get away from them) nor the deficit 'because they can tax us'. I asked about Unfunded Liabilities and he concurred that they will break promises to the greatest extent possible and they will be raising our taxes in any and every way they can get away with and the Fed will be monetizing everything they can. And he summed it up with the fact that we've been consuming more than we've been earning as a nation and will have to suffer a significant decline in the overall standard of living. Deal with it. Er, present company excluded, there are a lot of americans that have been pushed down from the middle class to the poverty level and that probably qualifies as a significant reduction in their standard of living.
Everyone hates the major miners apparently because they're been dinking their numbers too long to have much credibility. He loves the juniors BUT says that at these or lower prices, over the next year or so 500-600 will go OB due to lack of cash reserves so be very, very selective re: cash on hand.
Most everyone distrusts the gov't to the max. keynote speaker was Ron Paul. I won't go there.
At kitco or gold-eagle, there occasionally is a list of juniors with the data. Even w/o all the data you should be able to run a series of charts. Set up a bigchart and start punching tickers. I'd think their charts would tell the story pretty well. This is what I've always done.
Reply to @rono: Thanks for chiming in rono. After reading your post, I'm even more glad I dropped my miners fund last year. Way to much volatility for me in that sector. At 59, I just don't see the reward being worth the risk. Prices may be close to the bottom now, but there is just as good a chance that buying PM's and miners now would just be the proverbial 'trying to catch a falling knife'.
Personally, the only way I would play the PM sector would be in a more diversified fund like PRPFX and maybe a well managed diversified fund like WASYX or PRNEX where miners and PM's are only a subset of the portfolio. Best of luck though to others willing to take more risk.
Reply to @rono: If it went down to 950, how many of the gold holder would be buyers vs. sellers. At $1300 a lot of gold miners stop being profitable. So, some will shut down and supply will be more constraint from production but the momentum of dropping down to 950 can keep selling pressure going especially if the rates start to go up which tend to strengthen the currency.
Was today a final capitulation? Some of these YTD totals are quite ugly. My retirement funds started the year @ 6.9% in a mix of TGLDX and DWGOX.Now @4.14%. I continue to add on a $ cost average basis and may accelerate the amount and frequency if the -50% YTD threshhold is crossed. http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-precious-metals/$FOCA$SP.aspx
Comments
Individually, Newmont Mining (NEM) pays a 4.5% dividend...down 42% over the last 3 years...and still falling. FCX pays a dividend of #.9% and is down about 50% from its high.
It can stink trying to pick bottoms.
Article, might be worth a read:
the-next-generational-op-gold-silver-or-miners
Just got back from the Hard Assets conf in NYC where I met Old Nick. Sponsors and attendees off about 2/3 from previous years. Only the hard corps left. Heard a lot of quality speakers. Ian McAvity (one of the originals with Central Fund CEF and a chartist) is still bullish but wants to see it bounce in the nonce. Sees support at ~~~1320 and 950 and resistance at 1520 and 1600. As a chartist he's a bit concerned about the technicals but still bullish on the unchanged fundamentals. Referred to this 20% correction as a 500 ton GLD smack down.
VanEeden was the only bear last year and was therefore given greater heed this. Actually "bullish" and thinks the bottom may be in due to the conference turnout. That said, sees the actual value of gold as around 950 or so. Doesn't see inflation as an issue (thinks the Fed has sufficient ammo to deal with it unless rates get away from them) nor the deficit 'because they can tax us'. I asked about Unfunded Liabilities and he concurred that they will break promises to the greatest extent possible and they will be raising our taxes in any and every way they can get away with and the Fed will be monetizing everything they can. And he summed it up with the fact that we've been consuming more than we've been earning as a nation and will have to suffer a significant decline in the overall standard of living. Deal with it. Er, present company excluded, there are a lot of americans that have been pushed down from the middle class to the poverty level and that probably qualifies as a significant reduction in their standard of living.
Everyone hates the major miners apparently because they're been dinking their numbers too long to have much credibility. He loves the juniors BUT says that at these or lower prices, over the next year or so 500-600 will go OB due to lack of cash reserves so be very, very selective re: cash on hand.
Most everyone distrusts the gov't to the max. keynote speaker was Ron Paul. I won't go there.
At kitco or gold-eagle, there occasionally is a list of juniors with the data. Even w/o all the data you should be able to run a series of charts. Set up a bigchart and start punching tickers. I'd think their charts would tell the story pretty well. This is what I've always done.
Most felt we were near the bottom on the juniors.
It was good and the city is wonderful.
peace,
rono
Personally, the only way I would play the PM sector would be in a more diversified fund like PRPFX and maybe a well managed diversified fund like WASYX or PRNEX where miners and PM's are only a subset of the portfolio. Best of luck though to others willing to take more risk.
Likely an understatement. Now there's something folks of any political stripe can agree on.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-precious-metals/$FOCA$SP.aspx