David Cay Johnston vid. Stealth bailouts going on.

Crash

D.C. Johnston is not a "the sky is falling" kinda guy, like... Peter Schiff, for example. Johnston is making my blood boil over what's been done and what's going on. He also asserts that A.R. Sorkin ("1929") is quite sympathetic to Wall Street; a previous work of his, says Johnston, said the victims in a previous problem-time were the Big Banks!

I've not watched it all the way through, yet.


And then there's THIS:
https://www.dcreport.org/2025/12/29/ny-fed-unlimited-cash-infusions-bank-crisis/

yogibearbull

"In a vaguely worded NYFed policy change on Dec. 10—which not one of the major financial news organizations has reported—the Fed flung its vaults wide open to troubled banks."

Powell's new QE announcement on Dec 10 is as loud as it can get. This QE will take in T-Bills & T-Notes up to 3-yr maturity. Some wondered why when there is a big repo facility already. Fed QE, repo & other money-market operations are through NY Fed.

There is an alarmist tone to the piece, but there are some good points.

Many banks are involved in the commodity business. They aren't the biggest commodity players, but are significant. With parabolic move in silver, somebody somewhere is probably hurt & we will know that in due course. Nobody will buy silver in $70-80 range with their serious money - those buys are probably forced liquidation of shorts.
https://schrts.co/SIxquvcu

Here is the list from Google AI:

Major Banks Involved in Commodities
Large investment banks have significant commodity trading desks, particularly in futures, options, and derivatives markets.
Goldman Sachs: Historically a major force, it maintains a strong presence.
JPMorgan Chase: A leading global investment bank with a significant commodity business.
Citigroup: A major player in commodity-trading banking.
Morgan Stanley: Has a top-ranking commodities business among banks.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Part of the group of top U.S. clearing banks in derivatives.
Macquarie Group: Known for strength in commodities, especially in the U.S. physical natural gas market.
Barclays, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and UBS are also major global banks with notable U.S. commodity operations.

Crash

...OK. And Glass-Steagal is gone. That fact significantly alters the whole environment. Regulators have been instructed to go to sleep, too.

stayCalm

There appears to be some hokey-pokey going on at the Fed discount window.

DrVenture

So, all of the above. High stock market valuations. AI bubble fears. Bitcoin. PM prices. Inflation. Lower rates.

Time to party like it is NYE 1999!

stayCalm

2026 will be interesting
- Bull catalysts: QE, Election year -- GOP will do whatever it takes to keep control, puppet Fed reserve chair, AI soars
- Bear catalysts: High stock market valuations, PM prices signaling $ decline, delayed impact of tariffs causing inflation to rise, geopolitical conflicts, surge in Fed discount window usage, hare brained adventures by the Orange God, AI crashes

Personally I am bearish short term, bullish long term. I would accumulate significantly at a 20% drop.

rforno

"Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent."

Hope for the best, anticipate the worst, and rationally manage what we get.

DrVenture

stayCalm said:

2026 will be interesting
- Bull catalysts: QE, Election year -- GOP will do whatever it takes to keep control, puppet Fed reserve chair, AI soars
- Bear catalysts: High stock market valuations, PM prices signaling $ decline, delayed impact of tariffs causing inflation to rise, geopolitical conflicts, surge in Fed discount window usage, hare brained adventures by the Orange God, AI crashes

Personally I am bearish short term, bullish long term. I would accumulate significantly at a 20% drop.

Yes. Maybe even wait for a -25% fall.

Possibly drop from my current 62% equity to 50% equity first.

DrVenture

rforno said:

"Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent."

Hope for the best, anticipate the worst, and rationally manage what we get.

Great strategy. Mirrors my own.

Crash

bingo.

WABAC

yogibearbull said:

"In a vaguely worded NYFed policy change on Dec. 10—which not one of the major financial news organizations has reported—the Fed flung its vaults wide open to troubled banks."

Powell's new QE announcement on Dec 10 is as loud as it can get. This QE will take in T-Bills & T-Notes up to 3-yr maturity. Some wondered why when there is a big repo facility already. Fed QE, repo & other money-market operations are through NY Fed.

There is an alarmist tone to the piece, but there are some good points.

Many banks are involved in the commodity business. They aren't the biggest commodity players, but are significant. With parabolic move in silver, somebody somewhere is probably hurt & we will know that in due course. Nobody will buy silver in $70-80 range with their serious money - those buys are probably forced liquidation of shorts.
https://schrts.co/SIxquvcu

Here is the list from Google AI:

Major Banks Involved in Commodities
Large investment banks have significant commodity trading desks, particularly in futures, options, and derivatives markets.
Goldman Sachs: Historically a major force, it maintains a strong presence.
JPMorgan Chase: A leading global investment bank with a significant commodity business.
Citigroup: A major player in commodity-trading banking.
Morgan Stanley: Has a top-ranking commodities business among banks.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Part of the group of top U.S. clearing banks in derivatives.
Macquarie Group: Known for strength in commodities, especially in the U.S. physical natural gas market.
Barclays, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and UBS are also major global banks with notable U.S. commodity operations.

I was aware of the QE effort on the short side of duration. I try to keep a weather eye on the money supply. Hasn't that been mentioned here, by you at least?

Was not aware of the fun with commodities. How much of that has to do with precious metals?

Thank you for the continuing education. Always appreciated.