even though flip-flopping via trump's EO tariffs may go away (he will ignore or try another route if self-beneficial),
regional trade will grow as a foundation against american instability beyond the next 3 years.
nations that distrust america and\or china will steadily, if informally, stick more to local block of partners that are less outsized.
e.g., i expect europe to minimize longterm contractual dependence on the american defense sector, getting more value internally and via countries like s.korea.
...tariffs are beginning to backfire as the global trading regime gradually reduces reliance on the US as a trading partner. Rather than suffering damage, China’s annual trade surplus as of November surpassed US$1t for the first time, with December figures set to grow as Beijing found more salubrious trading partners.
...with projections suggesting more than US$1t in costs for businesses and consumers due to new US tariffs, affecting key sectors like auto, steel, and wood products, significantly increasing effective rates for major partners like China and developing nations, and contributing to
inflation and trade tension globally. But
once nations acquire new trading partners, they are likely to become permanent...'
https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/trump-tariffs-secondary-global-damage
