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Forecasts Are Not Analysis; They are opinion...Barry Ritholtz opinion
"Making a claim that some policy is wrong because of some vague danger at an unspecified date in the distant future is, well, bullshit." forecasts-are-not-analysis-they-are-opinion/
That is just a wonderful little article. I believe that it deserves reproduction here, with full credit to Mr. Ritholtz, of course:
Making a claim that some policy is wrong because of some vague danger at an unspecified date in the distant future is, well, bullshit.
To the guys [who] have been warning about hyper-inflation, the collapse of the dollar, the impending market blow up, an interest rate spike, etc. — you have been wrong for 5 years now — are you going to just keep doubling down?
There does not seem to be a lot of method to your madness. How about some data-driven analyses instead of empty headed fear-mongering? I am not suggesting you have to be bullish on equities or any other asset class — but an intelligent thought process would be quite nice for a change.
Here is an idea — how about giving us some guidelines as to early signs that will show your thesis is starting to come true? Yield spreads widening, foreclosures, increasing, year over year earnings falling — maybe a little something that you can point to as a signpost on the road to your being eventually correct?
I keep seeing these empty headed comments that are the equivalent of “You’ll see someday.”
Come back when you have some empirical proof about being right about something for a change.
Mr. Bernanke, having studied his history, had a pretty good idea of what wouldn't work, even if he was uncertain what might work. He decided to give what might work a shot. The man has a large set. We owe him plenty.
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