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Confessions of a Gloomy Gus

davfordavfor
edited May 2013 in Fund Discussions
Here is an interesting post -- presented in an amusing way -- with some useful food for thought about the Feds track record and the current state of the markets. Maybe everything will turn out right this time....but maybe its a good idea to hedge your bets....just in case it doesn't. Having done graduate work in economics I got a good laugh when reading the author's comments about PhD economists and their economic models.

http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/05/05/confessions-of-a-gloomy-gus/

Comments

  • STB65
    Hilarious? Seems an overly enthusiastic adjective, but I never took an economics course - which I now realize was an egregious oversight (maybe should have taken 2 or even 4). I did sign up for the weekly email under a semi-assumed name. Guess we'll see what interesting email offers I get.
    I don't have the time to spend to get the timing right, but I suspect I should have climbed on 6 months ago and gotten off about now. When Buffett doesn't see how the Fed unwinds its positions, I hope Bernanke does.
  • davfordavfor
    Reply to @STB65: Yes. After posting the link, it occurred to me I was probably overstating things by suggesting the article might seem hilarious to most readers. It was hilarious to me because the amusing way the author made his initial points corresponded with several of my views. Much of the academic economic modelling I encountered in grad school -- and have encountered since then -- is too ivory tower in nature to have much real world applicability. So, I am skeptical about the predictive usefulness of the Feds current economic models. (I received an MS in applied economics in the 1980's when I was in my 30's.) I'll edit the post!

    I don't have an strong opinion regarding timing the next stock market down turn. Its my impression another stock market bubble is beginning to form...but it seems to me it could be months or years before the next major down turn occurs.
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