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JIM O'NEILL'S FINAL PRESENTATION: Goldman Guru Presents His View Of The World From Now Through 2020

beebee
edited April 2013 in Off-Topic
""I have chosen to focus on the world," said Jim O'Neill in his final note as an economist for Goldmans Sachs.

O'Neill, who is famous for coining the acronym BRICs, discusses how the BRICs and other growth markets will continue to be an increasingly important driver of global growth.

"If China grows by 7.5% in this decade, and if the developed world returns close to trend, then the world will grow by around 4%," he said.

And in this environment, O'Neill argues that the stock market is a great place to be invested."

jim-oneill-global-macro-outlook-2013

Comments

  • BobCBobC
    Mr. O'Neill has been a pretty good futurist, and I would not dismiss his suggestion that emerging markets will continue to drive world growth over the next decade. The changing trade patterns he outlined were particularly insightful. These give credence that investors do not have to go 'all in' on EM stocks. They can also participate in some of the expected EM growth by owning multi-nationals that derive much of their revenue from EM countries.

    Interestingly, he also commented on the overall low cost of home ownership now when compared to 2005-08. Federated's Linda Duessel and Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders have made a big point of this for some time now. This would seem to bode very well for our homebuilding industry going forward. Despite the turnaround we have seen in the last year, it has just barely begun to recover to any real extent.

    It was funny that Hussman's neo-Dr. Doom comments were offered at the end of the O'Neill presentation. No doubt he will eventually be right. But pity the poor shareholders who have invested in his Strategic Growth Fund over the last 5 years. They are paying 1% each year to get an average loss of about 5% annually! And they have received a whopping 1%+ total over the last 10 years. Even money market funds look good by comparison.

    In the meantime, the markets continue to keep on chugging. The only sectors that are really off for the year are bullion and mining stocks. Other than that, things look pretty decent. Are we in for a late-spring and summer swoon?

    Just some early-morning ramblings.
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