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Very good, albeit sobering, S&P T/A article from MW updated after the bell Wednesday. Further S&P upside potential looks very limited before the selling begins again.
And so the selling began in earnest overnight and is continuing throughout the day.
Way too early for the T/A to claim victory, but he clearly has a leg up on it based on today's action. Further gains beyond yesterday's close appear improbable and a re-test of the lows looking likely at this point.
Right now? My first-round screening question is do people/companies *need* what the ticker sells regardless of politics or economic conditions? Or is it seriously exposed to consumer whims, tariffs, or other fickleness?
If the first one is 'yes', it's a possible investment for me and worthy of more analysis for potential new buys. A 'yes' to the second question rules it out for me.
To wit: Nike, Starbucks, Carnival Cruises, Apple, TSLA, chips, etc? No. But regulated utilities, midstream pipelines (of NG), and some pharma? Yes.
As far as T/A goes, I look at price action and briefly glance at where there's any historical 'congestion' to indicate 'support.'
The T/A provided in the link is primarily Fibo retracement stuff and gap filling, with a look back at similar scenarios and outcomes.
BTW, I wasn't clear. My question was more about index or fund/ETF level investing, but it of course also relates to indv stocks.
Forgive me if I'm missing the boat here but...
Please re-read what you posted because it's pretty confusing, at least to me, and I really like the screening (for stock purposes) and want to understand it.
To wit, there are TWO questions in your first-round screening. They're IMO opposing questions, that is, if you answer "Yes" to the first, you answer "No" to the second.
You then say, "If no..." "No" to which one?
Then for your group answers of "No" or "Yes" for the companies, which of your two questions are you answering?
And also, as I posted on yogi's Death Cross thread:
Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
With all due respect to those NOT inclined to use T/A, in my 45 years of investing, I've found that NOT using T/A during times like these is akin to flying blind. Currently, T/A has allowed me to completely remove emotion, develop a strategy for re-deployment of proceeds from our March 31 sales of 50% of our stocks, and simply connect the dots, so to speak. YMMV.
No specific T/A signals lead to our March 31 SELLs of 50% of stocks on March 31. T/A is after all, large parts science and art. It is generally always a combination of chart movements and signals, and in our case, analysis and guidance of professional T/A's, that causes us to act.
BTW, my actions were fully documented on the Liberation Day thread that was started on March 31, the Monday before Liberation Day. I ended up crediting the OP for throwing us over the edge and ultimately breaking a cardinal rule of investment strategy, selling stocks off to BELOW a lifetime, minimum %.
So it was far more a combination/compilation of things:
I had been DEEPLY worried about the economic and market impacts of tariffs from whatever day (in Nov?) the buffoon-elect stated he wanted to become known as the tariff president.
I mean DEEPLY worried. To the point that we significantly reduced our port volatility at our 2024 YE review, while also reducing our stock allocation % to the minimum, lifetime level.
The chart and market action around the end of Feb/beg of March were our primary indicators. If you recall, the buffoon postponed the BIG tariff announcement 30 days from March to April.
Take a look at charts and market performance in March. During that month, Katie Stockton and the other T/A's we follow were giving guidance like (paraphrasing): 2025 will be a year that the bull market pauses at best and NADAQ and the S&P are rolling over, and a host of other analysis/guidance that was clearly pointing to our belief that this could get WAY worse before it gets ANY better.
The depths of a potential market sell off were widely being projected, with T/A's duly calc'ing lines in the sand to which respective markets could drop if the April tariffs were anything near the levels the buffoon was spewing.
We knew that a recession had not been priced in yet. We knew that market watchers were not yet even allowing a deep recession to enter the picture.
We looked at the levels to which it appeared the market could/would drop if the news was as bad or worse as what happened in early March at the 30-day postponement.
So, T/A being large part art, what we saw coming on Liberation Day was a freight train, operated by a mad man, barreling down the tracks, with our stock portfolio smack in the middle of them.
It was a SCARY looking picture and we simply BLINKED and got the hell outta the way.
The Mike Santoli analysis I referenced shows that it'll likely be ~6-9 months in a best case scenario before the 50 dMA rises back above the 200 dMA (Golden Cross).
I'll admit that I took the stance that Trump says a lot of things (often times completely contradictory themes within the same sentence). It is a stream of consciousness with no apparent editing or self correction mechanism. So I generally take the stance of watching what he does vs. says. The depth of the tariffs certainly surprised me. In the weeks leading up to the April 2 bomb, I didn't sell anything but beefed up my LS and Market Neutral holdings which has helped cushion the hit to portfolio.
S&P appears poised to regain the Fibo 50% retracement line, and may even make it's first run at the 61.8% line.
Meanwhile, here's some historical data that helps me better understand why Katie S's recurring guidance over the past month or so has included the notion of potential pause in the bull in 2025.
Comments
Way too early for the T/A to claim victory, but he clearly has a leg up on it based on today's action. Further gains beyond yesterday's close appear improbable and a re-test of the lows looking likely at this point.
Fundamentals? Good luck discerning them during this buffoon-induced disaster
Emotions? That usually works out well, eh?
If the first one is 'yes', it's a possible investment for me and worthy of more analysis for potential new buys. A 'yes' to the second question rules it out for me.
To wit: Nike, Starbucks, Carnival Cruises, Apple, TSLA, chips, etc? No. But regulated utilities, midstream pipelines (of NG), and some pharma? Yes.
As far as T/A goes, I look at price action and briefly glance at where there's any historical 'congestion' to indicate 'support.'
The T/A provided in the link is primarily Fibo retracement stuff and gap filling, with a look back at similar scenarios and outcomes.
BTW, I wasn't clear. My question was more about index or fund/ETF level investing, but it of course also relates to indv stocks.
Forgive me if I'm missing the boat here but...
Please re-read what you posted because it's pretty confusing, at least to me, and I really like the screening (for stock purposes) and want to understand it.
To wit, there are TWO questions in your first-round screening. They're IMO opposing questions, that is, if you answer "Yes" to the first, you answer "No" to the second.
You then say, "If no..." "No" to which one?
Then for your group answers of "No" or "Yes" for the companies, which of your two questions are you answering?
I think I get it, just want to be sure.
Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
With all due respect to those NOT inclined to use T/A, in my 45 years of investing, I've found that NOT using T/A during times like these is akin to flying blind. Currently, T/A has allowed me to completely remove emotion, develop a strategy for re-deployment of proceeds from our March 31 sales of 50% of our stocks, and simply connect the dots, so to speak. YMMV.
No specific T/A signals lead to our March 31 SELLs of 50% of stocks on March 31. T/A is after all, large parts science and art. It is generally always a combination of chart movements and signals, and in our case, analysis and guidance of professional T/A's, that causes us to act.
BTW, my actions were fully documented on the Liberation Day thread that was started on March 31, the Monday before Liberation Day. I ended up crediting the OP for throwing us over the edge and ultimately breaking a cardinal rule of investment strategy, selling stocks off to BELOW a lifetime, minimum %.
So it was far more a combination/compilation of things:
I had been DEEPLY worried about the economic and market impacts of tariffs from whatever day (in Nov?) the buffoon-elect stated he wanted to become known as the tariff president.
I mean DEEPLY worried. To the point that we significantly reduced our port volatility at our 2024 YE review, while also reducing our stock allocation % to the minimum, lifetime level.
The chart and market action around the end of Feb/beg of March were our primary indicators. If you recall, the buffoon postponed the BIG tariff announcement 30 days from March to April.
Take a look at charts and market performance in March. During that month, Katie Stockton and the other T/A's we follow were giving guidance like (paraphrasing):
2025 will be a year that the bull market pauses at best and NADAQ and the S&P are rolling over, and a host of other analysis/guidance that was clearly pointing to our belief that this could get WAY worse before it gets ANY better.
The depths of a potential market sell off were widely being projected, with T/A's duly calc'ing lines in the sand to which respective markets could drop if the April tariffs were anything near the levels the buffoon was spewing.
We knew that a recession had not been priced in yet. We knew that market watchers were not yet even allowing a deep recession to enter the picture.
We looked at the levels to which it appeared the market could/would drop if the news was as bad or worse as what happened in early March at the 30-day postponement.
So, T/A being large part art, what we saw coming on Liberation Day was a freight train, operated by a mad man, barreling down the tracks, with our stock portfolio smack in the middle of them.
It was a SCARY looking picture and we simply BLINKED and got the hell outta the way.
The Mike Santoli analysis I referenced shows that it'll likely be ~6-9 months in a best case scenario before the 50 dMA rises back above the 200 dMA (Golden Cross).
Here's hoping you have at least that left!
I'll admit that I took the stance that Trump says a lot of things (often times completely contradictory themes within the same sentence). It is a stream of consciousness with no apparent editing or self correction mechanism. So I generally take the stance of watching what he does vs. says. The depth of the tariffs certainly surprised me. In the weeks leading up to the April 2 bomb, I didn't sell anything but beefed up my LS and Market Neutral holdings which has helped cushion the hit to portfolio.
Meanwhile, here's some historical data that helps me better understand why Katie S's recurring guidance over the past month or so has included the notion of potential pause in the bull in 2025.
https://fortune.com/2025/04/13/trump-tariff-stock-market-losses-dow-sp500-nasdaq-breakeven-rally/