Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"It's a beautiful fire, the likes the world has never seen before. Such a powerful fire, Nero couldn't even do this so quickly!" - Overheard at the Mar-a-Lardo patio
BBG: "The futures open speaks to capitulation by investors as large S&P put strikes are sliced through like butter.
The 50% retracement on the physical is 4,819 and below that is the 200-week moving average at 4674 and looks like support either from it might be needed."
Plenty of parallels to Black Monday 1987, as well as the trading days and news of the prior week, including (of all things!) bad news on the trade deficit. That crash of course was also the genesis of trading curbs put in place in 1988 which were just noted to be triggered overnight, and were just missed being triggered last Friday. The biggest contrast of course is the current crash is self-inflicted.
On Black Monday the DOW dropped ~23% and the S&P dropped ~20%. Those drops caused circuit breakers to be enacted in 1988. We may lose a bit over the 7% today, but unlikely much more.
And many times overnight futures don't tell the story of the next day's trading. They are already showing some signs of easing.
I think we all just need to keep his messages in mind...
“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.
Level 1: The S&P 500 falls 7% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is tripped up.
Level 2: The S&P 500 drops 13% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading stops for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is triggered.
Level 3: The S&P 500 plunges 20% intraday. At this point, the Exchange suspends trading for the remainder of the day.
The benchmark closed Friday’s session at 5,074.08. Here are the thresholds the S&P 500 needs to reach during Monday’s session the different circuit breakers to be triggered:
Comments
Cryptos are trading now & collapsing https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
At the Asia open...
SPX -3.6%
NDQ - 4.9%
Dow - 3;19%
Bitcoin -6.8%
Crude -2.7%
Scratch that, the indices are down over 5% now.
Expect more unhinged rah-rah 'EVERYTHING IS FINE!' tweeting from the Super Business Jenius this evening.
- Overheard at the Mar-a-Lardo patio
The 50% retracement on the physical is 4,819 and below that is the 200-week moving average at 4674 and looks like support either from it might be needed."
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/business/stocks-futures-sunday-tariffs/index.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/russell/e-mini-russell-2000.html
During after-hours.+/- 7% limits apply to equity futures.
During market hours, halts apply at -7%, -13%, -20%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/asia-markets-live-stocks-set-to-fall-on-trump-tariffs.html
As mentioned, there is a goodly chance of tomorrow being black Monday .
Alas,
Rono
On Black Monday the DOW dropped ~23% and the S&P dropped ~20%. Those drops caused circuit breakers to be enacted in 1988. We may lose a bit over the 7% today, but unlikely much more.
And many times overnight futures don't tell the story of the next day's trading. They are already showing some signs of easing.
I think we all just need to keep his messages in mind...
“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.
and of course
ONLY THE WEAL WILL FAIL!
Excerpt:
There are three circuit breaker levels:
Level 1: The S&P 500 falls 7% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is tripped up.
Level 2: The S&P 500 drops 13% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading stops for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is triggered.
Level 3: The S&P 500 plunges 20% intraday. At this point, the Exchange suspends trading for the remainder of the day.
The benchmark closed Friday’s session at 5,074.08. Here are the thresholds the S&P 500 needs to reach during Monday’s session the different circuit breakers to be triggered:
Level 1: 4,718.89
Level 2: 4,414.45
Level 3: 4,059.26