AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25

yogibearbull

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25

BEARISH remained the top sentiment (58.1%, very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%, very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (21.6%, very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -36.5% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (160+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 41.13% (negative). Fed held rates but reduced Treasury QT. Gold-miners lag as gold made a new high 3,000+. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1914/thread

Sven

@yogibb, what is the common wisdom say when the Bull-Bear Spread is low as now? I have build my cash position and be patient. Getting 4% yield from money market is reasonable.

hank

Thanks Yogi. Interesting. What I can’t tell from the numbers is how far out the time horizon is in these surveys - assuming there is one?

Conceivably, one might be bullish near term (1-3 months out), but bearish longer term (3, 5, 10 years or more). Or conversely, bearish near term and bullish longer term. Let us hope 25 year olds aren’t selling their long term retirement holdings (or ceasing to invest) based on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment.

yogibearbull

@sven, it's a contrarian indicator. So, very negative sentiment would mean not sell, may be buy. But is this correction over already? I will wait for better opportunities.

@hank, the Survey asks for the outlook for next 6 mo.

I also include the data for %Above 50-dMA and that indicates the situation now.

hank

Thanks Yogi. It would be nice to think Trump, Musk and Co have had the effect of shaking out the weaker hands. I think that’s somewhat true nearer term (reflected in the bearish sentiment indicators). But wouldn’t bet the ranch on it longer term …