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They Crashed the Economy in 2008. Now They’re Back and Bigger Than Ever.
@Sven, Atlanta Fed GDPNow provides a real-time estimate of the GDP. Normally, 2025/Q1 GDP would be released few weeks after the quarter-end, initial reading and then subsequent revisions - so, Spring/Summer.
But it's concerning that Atlanta Fed's and Piper Sandler estimates for 2025/Q1 GDP have changed to negative from positive - those are big swings for GDP.
But the discussion then will be is it just 1 negative quarter on technical tariff factors, or more serious - recession is defined as negative GDP for 2 successive quarters. That won't be known until Fall.
Just saw where today the Atlanta Fed has now revised first Q GDP to -2.8%. A bit scary in four weeks it has gone from +3.9 to -2.8. Even more scary when I see credit spreads on U.S. and European junk debt as well as emerging market debt at 17 year lows.
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