Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Nice chart. I see that you're getting into this volume thing. Can you go another step and say what the average volume was on up days and the average volume on down days over this same period... and then perhaps more interesting yet, since February 1st?
Sir. If I did this right, I think momentum is looking pretty grim right now. Yes, turning point was February.
Below is the updated graphic and numbers you asked about...basically the 50d volume trend continues to decline...selling pressure growing each week.
We are touching the 50d price SMA, but still 5-7% above 200d level. We need a reverse in near-term momentum very soon; if it does not happen, momentum anyway is telling us it is time to get out...which runs counter to just about every fiber in me! Let's hope it reverses.
If you gentlemen are right, we may have another repeat of last year. Also this is the beginning of the earning season and a number of large firms such as IBM and United Healthcare have missing their numbers even though they have already been lowered.
Any link that would provide up to date YTD figures on major asset classes? Seems to be fewer & fewer hot pockets. S&P 500's up almost 9%. REITS still hot. And Japan of course - which is a unique situation. Among conservative allocation funds, PRWCX is up 6.5% (I think those guys walk on water), but most have pulled back sharply - owing perhaps to commodity exposure.
Possibly, the sequester is taking its toll on the economy. Depends on geographic area, but those reliant on the defense industry are hurting big-time. The return to 1.7% on the 10-year is very worrisome - with reasons greatly open to speculation. And where's the Fed in all this? Generally they'll begin talking-the-talk when commodities slide. Doesn't appear to be the case this time.
Thanks guys. The futures were up overnight but are now coming back down. The bulls will want to hold the S&P 500 above the 50-day simple moving average to close out the week. But lately the bulls have been grazing on Fridays. The number of S&P stocks above their 50-day SMA is declining and as of yesterday’s close, slightly less than 50% of stocks were above the 50-day SMA. And then there are a number of technical divergences taking place – early warning signs of a breakdown.
Look at your funds and compare them to their current benchmarks. Look at the sectors that are having the sharpest runs – like XLF (financials), XLV (Healthcare), and XLY (Discretionary). This is where the money has been moving to and where a breakdown could spell trouble. Be careful out there. And decide now what you’ll consider doing if it all breaks down. Long-term investors should feel free to ignore all of this.
The below link is for mutual funds and is updated overnight for the previous business day. This linked table is set for YTD descending rank (highest to least return YTD). All headers are clickable for sorting. Note that this table is not set for 1 day/1 week returns as may be viewed at M* using performance for a particular fund. One may also select any of the categories and compare funds within that particular category; keeping in mind how M* classifies a fund (moderate allocation, etc.)
Edit:Regardless of one's view of whether the U.S. equity is overbought, I also view the U.S. equity sector not just from the YTD numbers that are viewed by many, but from the beginning of the current upward leg that began in mid-November, 2012. The following applies for the broad based etf, VTI.
11-14-2012 through 12-31-2012 +6.9% 1-4-2013 through 4-18-2013 (YTD) +5.9% 11-14-2012 through 4-18-2013 +13.2%
Any profit taking by the big houses/others, IMHO; should not only be a reflection upon YTD returns, but returns generated since mid-November, 2012.
Reply to @hank: "Possibly, the sequester is taking its toll on the economy."
Need moar QE and another 5-10 years or ZIRP (I don't know about anyone else, but I'm eager for NIRP.) [sarcasm] Maybe NIRP will finally create a sustainable recovery ang magically fix all the problems that have been attempted to be papered over the last few years...[/sarcasm]
Charles, Over the years I've been on various trading boards with all sorts of self proclaimed technical trading experts and gurus using a plethora of esoteric and arcane technical indicators and oscillators. Trust me, (except for possibly one fellow) these guys are about as clueless as they come and their ability to predict and forecast is about nil. The best use of those forums is (as the poster above alluded to) as a contrary indicator, i.e. fade their consensus. As an aside, I would wager the investing balances of those on this board far, far exceeds the balances of those who infest the trading boards.
Nice bounce up today, though certainly was not due to GE. Although I thought its numbers looked AOK. Ditto for BAC earlier this week. Yet, Mr. Market still punished them both. Good to see MSFT advance. BRK as well. Mr. Cook & Mr. Bynum should be smiling. Next week, need to string a few more pluses together.
Below is updated graph for SPY YTD through WE 4/19. Between taxes, terrorists, and a down market, it's a week I'm glad to see finish...just need to catch one more fugitive in Boston.
Comments
Nice chart. I see that you're getting into this volume thing.
Can you go another step and say what the average volume was on
up days and the average volume on down days over this same period...
and then perhaps more interesting yet, since February 1st?
Below is the updated graphic and numbers you asked about...basically the 50d volume trend continues to decline...selling pressure growing each week.
We are touching the 50d price SMA, but still 5-7% above 200d level. We need a reverse in near-term momentum very soon; if it does not happen, momentum anyway is telling us it is time to get out...which runs counter to just about every fiber in me! Let's hope it reverses.
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Possibly, the sequester is taking its toll on the economy. Depends on geographic area, but those reliant on the defense industry are hurting big-time. The return to 1.7% on the 10-year is very worrisome - with reasons greatly open to speculation. And where's the Fed in all this? Generally they'll begin talking-the-talk when commodities slide. Doesn't appear to be the case this time.
The futures were up overnight but are now coming back down.
The bulls will want to hold the S&P 500 above the 50-day simple
moving average to close out the week.
But lately the bulls have been grazing on Fridays.
The number of S&P stocks above their 50-day SMA is declining and
as of yesterday’s close, slightly less than 50% of stocks were above the 50-day SMA.
And then there are a number of technical divergences taking place – early warning
signs of a breakdown.
Look at your funds and compare them to their current benchmarks.
Look at the sectors that are having the sharpest runs – like XLF (financials),
XLV (Healthcare), and XLY (Discretionary). This is where the money has been moving to and where a breakdown could spell trouble.
Be careful out there.
And decide now what you’ll consider doing if it all breaks down.
Long-term investors should feel free to ignore all of this.
The below link is for mutual funds and is updated overnight for the previous business day. This linked table is set for YTD descending rank (highest to least return YTD). All headers are clickable for sorting. Note that this table is not set for 1 day/1 week returns as may be viewed at M* using performance for a particular fund.
One may also select any of the categories and compare funds within that particular category; keeping in mind how M* classifies a fund (moderate allocation, etc.)
M* by major category
Edit:Regardless of one's view of whether the U.S. equity is overbought, I also view the U.S. equity sector not just from the YTD numbers that are viewed by many, but from the beginning of the current upward leg that began in mid-November, 2012. The following applies for the broad based etf, VTI. Any profit taking by the big houses/others, IMHO; should not only be a reflection upon YTD returns, but returns generated since mid-November, 2012.
Back to work here.....
Take care,
Catch
Need moar QE and another 5-10 years or ZIRP (I don't know about anyone else, but I'm eager for NIRP.) [sarcasm] Maybe NIRP will finally create a sustainable recovery ang magically fix all the problems that have been attempted to be papered over the last few years...[/sarcasm]
Below is updated graph for SPY YTD through WE 4/19. Between taxes, terrorists, and a down market, it's a week I'm glad to see finish...just need to catch one more fugitive in Boston.