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T-Bonds are 10+ to 30 year maturities. They have high duration, so high rate sensitivity. You can have large gains or haircuts when selling before maturity. They will pay par on maturity - that is guaranteed by the US Treasury.
I'm aware I would need to keep a focused eye in order to avoid a buzz cut!
For sure. You’d be safer I think laying a wager at DraftKings on something. And wouldn’t need to wait 30 years to find out if you were right or wrong. However, if the current yield looks good to you and you are willing to wait 30 years you will earn the current rate of interest and not lose a penny of principal.
Maybe buy a magic genie first and ask it what inflation will average between now and 2055? Then at least you’d know if the current payout is worth it. As Yogi suggested, at 30 years duration you’d be whipsawed up and down as rates fluctuated. Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
I’d agree with Derf that a 30 year bond would make a great trading vehicle for someone trying to game the bond market. But they better know what they’re doing.
A 30-yr zero will have a duration of 30 years, 30-yr T-Bonds less due to coupon payments.
If like to lock in some at current yield (4.76%) without reinvestment risk, look at 30-yr Treasury Zero-Coupon. It may cost about $25 for $100 par in 30 yrs.
Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
It's easy to mix up duration and maturity. A 10 year bond with 5% coupon has a duration under seven years.
SNIDX "seeks to maintain an effective duration of three to seven years under normal market conditions." Summary Prospectus
The difference in yields between 10 year and 30 year bonds is usually not that large. So buying 30 year bonds is tantamount to placing a bet on interest rate movements. As Yogi noted, the impact of any rate change is magnified with the 30 year bond.
Currently (12/24/2024) the 30 year is yielding just 17 basis points more than the 10 year. Further, a bond maturing in 20 years is paying even more than the 30 year bond. So buying the lower yielding 30 year is not to get a higher yield but solely to get more exposure to interest rate changes.
Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates - December 2024
”A 10 year bond with 5% coupon has a duration under seven years.” - Wow. You learn something every day here.
BTW - I inputted “intermediate” at M* and pulled up the first fund it found. So, SNIDX wasn’t meant to be a recommendation and it may not be representative of other intermediate term bond funds.
For more than a year now, I took the other side, which has been one of the best risk/reward performance in bond land. Investing in lower-rated CLOs. CLOZ made over 20% in 1.5 years, while TLT lost over 9%. https://schrts.co/PcchSZaD
Currently, CLOZ pays about 8% per year based on its last distribution * 12 months + duration is short (I can't find it). TLT pays about 4.8% with duration = 16.5
Why would I take a high risk/volatility trade based on unknown rates?
The above isn't a recommendation, just an observation. Never in life have I bought directly a Treasury or a very high-rated bond fund. Too much risk/volatility per unknown rates/duration/correlation.
Comments
T-Bonds are 10+ to 30 year maturities. They have high duration, so high rate sensitivity. You can have large gains or haircuts when selling before maturity. They will pay par on maturity - that is guaranteed by the US Treasury.
Maybe buy a magic genie first and ask it what inflation will average between now and 2055? Then at least you’d know if the current payout is worth it. As Yogi suggested, at 30 years duration you’d be whipsawed up and down as rates fluctuated. Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
I’d agree with Derf that a 30 year bond would make a great trading vehicle for someone trying to game the bond market. But they better know what they’re doing.
If like to lock in some at current yield (4.76%) without reinvestment risk, look at 30-yr Treasury Zero-Coupon. It may cost about $25 for $100 par in 30 yrs.
It's easy to mix up duration and maturity. A 10 year bond with 5% coupon has a duration under seven years.
SNIDX "seeks to maintain an effective duration of three to seven years under normal market conditions." Summary Prospectus
The difference in yields between 10 year and 30 year bonds is usually not that large. So buying 30 year bonds is tantamount to placing a bet on interest rate movements. As Yogi noted, the impact of any rate change is magnified with the 30 year bond.
Currently (12/24/2024) the 30 year is yielding just 17 basis points more than the 10 year. Further, a bond maturing in 20 years is paying even more than the 30 year bond. So buying the lower yielding 30 year is not to get a higher yield but solely to get more exposure to interest rate changes.
Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates - December 2024
BTW - I inputted “intermediate” at M* and pulled up the first fund it found. So, SNIDX wasn’t meant to be a recommendation and it may not be representative of other intermediate term bond funds.
CLOZ made over 20% in 1.5 years, while TLT lost over 9%.
https://schrts.co/PcchSZaD
Currently, CLOZ pays about 8% per year based on its last distribution * 12 months + duration is short (I can't find it).
TLT pays about 4.8% with duration = 16.5
Why would I take a high risk/volatility trade based on unknown rates?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627176-cloz-bbb-bb-clo-etf-strong-10-7-percent-sec-yield-low-interest-rate-risk
The above isn't a recommendation, just an observation. Never in life have I bought directly a Treasury or a very high-rated bond fund. Too much risk/volatility per unknown rates/duration/correlation.