Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
BTW, ARIVX lost 0.71% today, more than twice that of S&P 500 and more than some other much more than aggressive small cap mutual funds.
That is thanks to holding a large number of Material (Gold/Silver) stocks. Muting the drop was extra large cash in the portfolio. Materials sector is the only that is rated Neutral by Bespoke (4/11). So, those stocks got cheaper. Value or value trap?
I gave up on PM mutual funds TGLDX and USAGX last summer and I am so - so glad I did. I like to put some money into sector bets , but never again for precious metal, minor funds. Right now my sector bets are on GASFX, PRENX, CSRIX, PRHSX and RYBOX - Energy/NR, health care and REITs.
On the other hand, I own ARIVX and have no intention to give up on it. I believe the manager will be a winner over an economic cycle (a perfect buy and hold fund). He has proven that as much compared to any other fund manager. And since I bought the fund for the purpose of buy and hold with a manger that has capital preservation at the forefront of his investing style, nothing has changed for me. If Cinnamond believes a part of his portfolio should be in minors, I trust he sees value going forward. But I know I'm not smart enough to play the minors.
Me-thinks your ARIVX comment is trying to justify your dumping the fund.
Reply to @MikeM: Technically I have not dumped the fund yet. Well, at least not fully. I took got my initial investment and some profit out. I've got less than 1% of my portfolio in several accounts still.
Reply to @MikeM: You have my kind of funds, especially RYBOX and GASFX. (but why the load RYBOX instead of RYOIX) Best of luck. I see so few here with momentum funds, especially in this market of double digit gains. Surprised you are still hanging with ARIVX but understand your explanation so no need to add my 2 cents which would just alienate the ARVIXers.
Reply to @Hiyield007: My mistake. RYOIX is what I own. Fairly new buy for me. I've held PRHSX but wanted to add something different to the health care sector. Saw RYOIX mentioned here on MFO, quite possibly from you.
I own TGLDX and ARIVX. I never invest distributions. Healthy way to take profits IMHO, in addition to ease in tracking cost basis.
I wait for days like this. I will by buying some more TGLDX and ARIVX. Normally I don't buy sector funds, but making exception as far as gold is concerned. I'm also thinking of VGPMX
We target around a 4-5% position in CEF for many client accounts and will be buyers at the end of June if current trends continue, to keep the target allocation in place. Our goal is not to play short-term pricing opportunities, but rather to maintain a position. We don't expect much uptick in inflation andy time soon, but we do want to have a hedge against policymaking stupidity. Keep in mind that we are entering the weakest seasonal time for gold, too.
I'm with Bob on this one. As I've been saying for years, there is a place in every portfolio for some gold as an investment of 5% or so with more than that being speculative. I still believe this very strongly if not more so. Well, today, the speculators have been handed their hats and there is a huge attempt to shake some of the long term stronger hands loose from their stash. This was too weird - ECB forcing Cyprus to sell their treasury gold to pay their share of the bailout - fear that this would be a trend spreading to Italy, Spain, etc. - markets frozen on Friday and then closed over the weekend to prevent physical buying - oh, and GS being the shrillest tout to yell Sell Gold.
feh, I'm not buying the price action. What I'm watching is for is to see how physical supplies and their associated premiums respond. That will be the tell-tale as to how much of this was price manipulation and how much herd behavior.
As has been already noted, periodic rebalancing is the smarter way to go if you have a small allocation to gold. If you piled in hand -over-fist, G** help you.
Reply to @hank: as gold moves lower more and more people that are utilizing margin in their account will get margin call. Some will have some of their gold liquidated to come up with more cash. But, I think some will hold on to gold and will try to liquidate other asset classes. So, I expect both equities and bonds will be hit too. This could be the pull back everyone was looking for except that it initiated in the precious metals as opposed to equities or bonds. Gold was supposed to be insurance... Oh well...
Thanks for the post. I've been holding PRPFX for a long while in large part because of measured pro/con discussions years back among you and other old FundAlarmers. I basically hold gold in the soft coating PRPFX provides because I know I'm a baby and it makes days like this easier to take. So I greet this news with not quite a shrug, but bemused interest, rather than hysteria.
HYPE??? To think that CNBC would actually hype something? Oh, for shame! These folks would never hype something for ratings, would they? LOL! I still remember watching Bloomberg when the 'flash crash' occurred. Their so-called man-on-the-floor of the exchange was screaming "You gotta sell everything!" And these people call themselves journalists.
Greg. I have not even considered doing anything with PRPFX. It is and will always be a core holding of mine.
As for the POG and POS, these are paper prices and we have to see what is happening to physical gold and silver, both supply and premium. If we see a divergence, it will be a sign that the paper price is artificial to some degree. If this is a buy signal for you, I would suggest that you only buy and take possession of the real stuff. apmex.com is already showing OofS on many of their silver eagle offerings.
For anyone new to this, it goes back to Econ 101 and demand/supply curves. Whenever there is an artificially imposed price - price controls, etc - supply disappears OR the price goes up via premium/markup/vigorish/blackmarket. This happened with Nixon and the gasoline price controls - all of a sudden the gas stations are out. This is still what is happening today in the credit market with the lack of credit supply - the interest rate, or price of money, is being kept artificially low by the Fed and bankers do not choose to make any loans (have any supply). They are not going to write a mortgage for 30 fixed for 3.5%. Sorry, no money today. Now, if you were to pay them 4.5-5% . . . well maybe they can find a little money.
We'll see if this is what is going on with bullion.
Comments
On the other hand, I own ARIVX and have no intention to give up on it. I believe the manager will be a winner over an economic cycle (a perfect buy and hold fund). He has proven that as much compared to any other fund manager. And since I bought the fund for the purpose of buy and hold with a manger that has capital preservation at the forefront of his investing style, nothing has changed for me. If Cinnamond believes a part of his portfolio should be in minors, I trust he sees value going forward. But I know I'm not smart enough to play the minors.
Me-thinks your ARIVX comment is trying to justify your dumping the fund.
I wait for days like this. I will by buying some more TGLDX and ARIVX. Normally I don't buy sector funds, but making exception as far as gold is concerned. I'm also thinking of VGPMX
I'm with Bob on this one. As I've been saying for years, there is a place in every portfolio for some gold as an investment of 5% or so with more than that being speculative. I still believe this very strongly if not more so. Well, today, the speculators have been handed their hats and there is a huge attempt to shake some of the long term stronger hands loose from their stash. This was too weird - ECB forcing Cyprus to sell their treasury gold to pay their share of the bailout - fear that this would be a trend spreading to Italy, Spain, etc. - markets frozen on Friday and then closed over the weekend to prevent physical buying - oh, and GS being the shrillest tout to yell Sell Gold.
feh, I'm not buying the price action. What I'm watching is for is to see how physical supplies and their associated premiums respond. That will be the tell-tale as to how much of this was price manipulation and how much herd behavior.
I'm holding and shopping.
peace,
rono
Thanks for the post. I've been holding PRPFX for a long while in large part because of measured pro/con discussions years back among you and other old FundAlarmers. I basically hold gold in the soft coating PRPFX provides because I know I'm a baby and it makes days like this easier to take. So I greet this news with not quite a shrug, but bemused interest, rather than hysteria.
gfb
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/golds-vix-term-structure-most-inverted-lehman
Interesting charts.
Greg. I have not even considered doing anything with PRPFX. It is and will always be a core holding of mine.
As for the POG and POS, these are paper prices and we have to see what is happening to physical gold and silver, both supply and premium. If we see a divergence, it will be a sign that the paper price is artificial to some degree. If this is a buy signal for you, I would suggest that you only buy and take possession of the real stuff. apmex.com is already showing OofS on many of their silver eagle offerings.
For anyone new to this, it goes back to Econ 101 and demand/supply curves. Whenever there is an artificially imposed price - price controls, etc - supply disappears OR the price goes up via premium/markup/vigorish/blackmarket. This happened with Nixon and the gasoline price controls - all of a sudden the gas stations are out. This is still what is happening today in the credit market with the lack of credit supply - the interest rate, or price of money, is being kept artificially low by the Fed and bankers do not choose to make any loans (have any supply). They are not going to write a mortgage for 30 fixed for 3.5%. Sorry, no money today. Now, if you were to pay them 4.5-5% . . . well maybe they can find a little money.
We'll see if this is what is going on with bullion.
peace,
rono