Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
How long before companies/people invoke Chevron in cases involving SEC/CFTC/FDIC to overturn regulations that protect markets and investors?
How long before deep-pocketed players who are more ego than brain (Ackman, Musk, other oligarchs, etc) start throwing money at these bets to skew the data so that betting odds will get cited as newsworthy (eg, 'more accurate') indications of public sentiment? But nobody would ever 'rig' the system like that, would they?
Good point on sentiment manipulation using PACs to throw money in the betting markets. Betting market manipulation can cut both ways. If your candidate is leading comfortably, you may decide to stay home and not vote. I think negative advertisements are more effective just as negative news get more clicks than trying to manipulate the betting markets.
Interactive Brokers founder, Chairman, and majority owner (75%), Thomas Peterffy, is a Mar-O-Lago Club member. He said Trump is not electable but as a Republican, he would vote for Trump. At the risk of stating the obvious, he is also a contributor to Trump campaign. Do not blame the long list of Republican politicians who fall in line with Trump and are scared for their career survival to go "Country over Party" when the non-politicians go "Party over Country." There has never been a bad leader in any profession without the enablers (any of us).
AP: After just a few hours, U.S. election bets put on hold by appeals court ruling
The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued an order Thursday night temporarily freezing the matter until it can consider and rule on the issue. No timetable was initially given.
So, I checked my reliable source, X/Twitter again.
The Appeals Court did issue a temporary freeze last night on Kalshi contracts. Court cited lack of time for judges in issuing the temporary freeze on an issues that could affect "national security" (as per the CFTC). The status of contracts that traded for a few hours is in limbo.
Kalshi has also petitioned to trade these election contracts while the CFTC appeal proceeds. A hearing is scheduled for Monday.
In X/Twitter feed, I noticed that WSJ sources were missing - WSJ in fact put this item in a huge limelight by its initial reporting.
A federal Judge ruled against CFTC saying that election betting is neither gambling nor illegal activity - because elections are neither.
You could go on forever with this crazy logic. For example: Shooting a gun anywhere, including schools, freeways and malls, is neither murder or illegal activity - because guns are neither.
You could do this with almost anything that has an unrelated component that is legal. Where do they get these "legal scholars"?
Comments
https://www.predictit.org/
A isn't B because C isn't B. Sounds very Trumpian.
How long before companies/people invoke Chevron in cases involving SEC/CFTC/FDIC to overturn regulations that protect markets and investors?
How long before deep-pocketed players who are more ego than brain (Ackman, Musk, other oligarchs, etc) start throwing money at these bets to skew the data so that betting odds will get cited as newsworthy (eg, 'more accurate') indications of public sentiment? But nobody would ever 'rig' the system like that, would they?
I'm sooo disappointed. I needed something to hedge DJT with.
The Appeals Court did issue a temporary freeze last night on Kalshi contracts. Court cited lack of time for judges in issuing the temporary freeze on an issues that could affect "national security" (as per the CFTC). The status of contracts that traded for a few hours is in limbo.
Kalshi has also petitioned to trade these election contracts while the CFTC appeal proceeds. A hearing is scheduled for Monday.
In X/Twitter feed, I noticed that WSJ sources were missing - WSJ in fact put this item in a huge limelight by its initial reporting.
Shooting a gun anywhere, including schools, freeways and malls, is neither murder or illegal activity - because guns are neither.
You could do this with almost anything that has an unrelated component that is legal. Where do they get these "legal scholars"?
Trump University?