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Treacherous September is Leaving Traders Everywhere on Edge - Bloomberg Market Analysis

hank
edited September 2 in Other Investing
”(Bloomberg) -- September has traditionally been a terrible month for traders and risks being even harder to navigate in 2024 given lingering questions about the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest-rate cut.

“Bonds, stocks and gold have typically suffered losses in the month, as traders reassessed their portfolios after the summer break. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have had their biggest percentage losses since 1950 in the month of September. Bonds have slid in eight of the last 10 Septembers, while bullion has dropped every time since 2017.”

Story at Yahoo Finance

Interestingly, gold slipped below $2500 Sunday evening for the first time in several weeks after testing $2600 recently. This in the face of a very bullish Barron’s. article.

Comments

  • MikeW
    I’m seeing a lot of articles talking about downturn in September….so maybe because everyone is expecting it and talking about it…. It won’t happen this year.
  • hank
    edited September 2
    +1 Hope you’re correct. Just sharing an article that caught my attention this evening on my Bloomberg feed. It’s hard to link directly to Bloomberg. Was easier to track the (same) article down at Yahoo and link thru them.

    Other headlines Sunday evening on Bloomberg:

    - Pimco Sees BOJ Hike as Soon as January, Likes Long-Term (Japanese) Bonds

    - T. Rowe Manager (Arif Husain) Who Predicted Yen Shock Sees Another One Coming

    - Argentina Ships Gold Bars Abroad to Be Financially Certified

    - Aston Martin Unveils New Vanquish Sports Car With V-12 Engine

    - Brazilian Judges Ratify Ban on X in Deepening Feud With Musk

    - Boeing's Latest Crisis Is Great News for SpaceX
  • MikeW
    Obviously I have no idea but just sharing that everyone seems to be talking about how horrible both September and October are historically…
  • MikeW
    There’s ALOT riding on this fridays jobs report. As long as the numbers are over 125k, things should be okay. If they fall below 100k we are in deep doo-doo!
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    another standing hed 40y
  • hank
    edited September 2
    Yes. A real contrarian would pour more money into Mr. Market after reading such reports.

    (You first ...)
  • BaluBalu
    edited September 3
    Bloomberg supplies us with a daily dose of Gloomberg. They keep us on drip lest we get off the addiction.
  • gman57
    edited September 3
    My results == 2 of the last 4 years Sept was down, 4 of the last 4 years Oct. was down. You would think the odds say Oct should be up this year or will it be a self fulfilling outcome due to all the stories, comments? One other item, over the last 4 years I've never been up more than 7 months of the year. 3 years were up 7 months and down 5, 1 year (2022) up 5 months down 7. This year I'm already up 7 months so far. (This is not scientific detail as my spending and hence monthly outcome is different from anyone else but gives me a ball park picture of how Mr. market behaves.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Among Bloomberg headlines, I couldn't make sense out of,
    "Pimco Sees BOJ Hike as Soon as January, Likes Long-Term (Japanese) Bonds"

    Normally, buying bonds ahead of rate hikes isn't a great idea. Does Pimco think that expected bond hits have already occurred? Or, that yen strength will compensate for bond losses? Or, Pimco is talking about rate futures?

    On search, I found an open blurb at UK-Bloomberg, but it didn't make things any clearer.
  • hank
    edited September 3
    yogibearbull said:

    Among Bloomberg headlines, I couldn't make sense out of,
    "Pimco Sees BOJ Hike as Soon as January, Likes Long-Term (Japanese) Bonds"

    Normally, buying bonds ahead of rate hikes isn't a great idea. Does Pimco think that expected bond hits have already occurred? Or, that yen strength will compensate for bond losses? Or, Pimco is talking about rate futures?

    On search, I found an open blurb at UK-Bloomberg, but it didn't make things any clearer.

    Thanks for the question @yogibearbull

    I agree with your analysis. I can only speculate PIMCO may be waiting until the BOJ raises rates further before making a substantial purpose. Alternatively, they may be playing the shorter part of the curve or - possibly just holding yen for the time being. It does sound like Bloomberg doesn’t have all their ducks lined up straight here, However, the chief of fixed income at TRP is cited as sharing a similar sentiment.

    I did find the identical Bloomberg article reprinted at Yahoo if you want to take a look.

    Here’s the Bloomberg article re T.Rowe’s take on the matter: Yahoo


    (Note - I’ll be traveling today. Sorry won’t be able to respond to other questions.)
  • catch22catch22
    edited September 3
    I'll step aside from previous years equity markets performance during September and October for whatever reasons; and note that the next 2 full months will remain a full political battle for the future of this country, that the middle east is still 'on fire', that the Ukraine continues to attack within Russia with drones, that the U.S. has stated that Iran should not provide drones/missiles to Russia and that Russia continues to destroy important targets in Ukraine. There likely remains 20 other items that are not in the 'big' news, at this time.

    POSTED: September 3, Tuesday at 9:30 am.

    ADD: you may use the link to follow the sectors markets when the U.S. markets are open. One may bookmark this page or save the link to your electronic device for future views.

    Major global and U.S. etf categories This list is set with %Chg column (daily), which will indicate near real time changes while the U.S. markets are open; being from most positive to most negative returns. The right side of this data provides 'technical' buy/sell indicators (opinion).
  • rforno
    MikeW said:

    There’s ALOT riding on this fridays jobs report. As long as the numbers are over 125k, things should be okay. If they fall below 100k we are in deep doo-doo!

    There's ALWAYS 'a lot' riding on the jobs report, CPI, PCE, PCM, CPI, ISM, etc.....and it's always billed as an "all-important" report as well. Fear, doom, blood, and panic sell, remember.

    I'm too old a trading duck to get worried about these reports. I used to trade around them earlier in life, now I just roll my eyes and try to be away from the computer when the numbers come out, because ... *shrug* .... why not.
  • MikeW
    catch22 said:

    I'll step aside from previous years equity markets performance during September and October for whatever reasons; and note that the next 2 full months will remain a full political battle for the future of this country, that the middle east is still 'on fire', that the Ukraine continues to attack within Russia with drones, that the U.S. has stated that Iran should not provide drones/missiles to Russia and that Russia continues to destroy important targets in Ukraine. There likely remains 20 other items that are not in the 'big' news, at this time.

    POSTED: September 3, Tuesday at 9:30 am.

    ADD: you may use the link to follow the sectors markets when the U.S. markets are open. One may bookmark this page or save the link to your electronic device for future views.

    Major global and U.S. etf categories This list is set with %Chg column (daily), which will indicate near real time changes while the U.S. markets are open; being from most positive to most negative returns. The right side of this data provides 'technical' buy/sell indicators (opinion).

    Hey @catch22 thanks so much for sharing this etf category link…. Really useful. I wasn’t aware of this one. Clearly a very defensive day today with consumer staples, RE, and utes all outperforming. I’ve been tracking the low volatility etfs like SPHD and will note that they’ve been up every day since mid August.
  • MikeW
    @rforno yeah I hear ya… I’ve rarely seen the divergence though in opinions about how weak/strong the economy is among people I read and respect. We all have our favorites. But I think that’s why we are having these violent swings in the markets each time a new data point comes out. People just don’t know. Plus you add the election to the equation and that just amps up the potential for volatility… sitting tight and waiting for over reactions is probably the best strategy
  • Observant1
    edited September 3
    September is purportedly the worst month for stocks.
    There are several theories to explain this pattern but none of them are remotely definitive.
    Regardless, September got off to a rough start today.
    Select equity ETF returns for today are listed below.

    IWM -3.06%
    QQQ -3.04%
    SPY -2.06%
    EEM -1.98%
    EFA -1.58%
    DIA -1.43%

    https://www.investopedia.com/stocks-september-effect-economy-presidential-election-inflation-fed-2024-8705709
  • Baseball_Fan
    MRFOX. -0.37
    PRCFX -0.47
    VELIX -0.74

    I'll shat myself if hussy is down today....waiting and curious how PHEFX performed today....

    Uncle Warren done ok today ..+0.25 and Wally WMT did ok today , -0.09

  • JD_co
    1 Day performance
    Consumer Defensive + .46%
    Real Estate - (-.14%)
    Utilities - (-.45%)
    Healthcare (-.73%)
    Finls (-.9%)
    Consumer Cyclical (-1.5%)
    Communication, Energy & Industrials - Each ~ (-2.6%)
    Basic Materials (-3.36)
    Technology (-4.3%)
  • Observant1
    BF,

    You won't have to don your Huggies.
    Hussman's funds are up today.
    HSGFX - 2.36%
    HSAFX - 0.32%

    Can't say the same for PHEFX.
    PHEFX - (-1.29%)
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