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BONDS The week that was....w/e December 20, 2024..... Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP + distributions
My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the select bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
W/E September 20, 2024..... FED actions = mixed returns for bonds
--- With FED Reserve actions this week found the w/e with mixed results for bond sectors. High yield is still happy, quality corp. bonds did well, as did short duration TIPs related, short duration Treasury was mixed and long duration was NOT very happy. Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 16 - September 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.04% yield. MMKT's yields found LARGE yield drops after Wednesday (FED Reserve) . Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's. As a percentage of YIELD, yields were down from 1.42% through 2.14% for 3 Fido MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. SOFR rates had a yield drop of -9.57%. WHAT is SOFR?
--- AGG = -.26% / +4.77% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings) --- MINT = +.17% / +4.40% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated) --- SHY = +.07% / +4.07% (UST 1-3 yr bills) --- IEI = +1.06% / +4.29% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds) --- IEF = -.47% / +4.48% (UST 7-10 yr bonds) --- TIP = +.10% / +4.92% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration) --- VTIP = +.28% / +4.87% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) --- STPZ = +.24% / +4.92% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- LTPZ = -.41% / +4.93% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- TLT = -1.54% / +2.65% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond --- EDV = -2.08% / +1.62% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds) --- ZROZ = -2.47% / -.31% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO --- TBT = +3.06% / +.52% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings) --- TMF = -4.64% / -6.07% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf) *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference: --- BAGIX = -.20% / +5.21% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) --- LQD = +.21% / +5.58% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds) --- BKLN = +.19% / +5.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower) --- HYG = +.79% / +8.04% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF) --- HYD = +.07%/+5.31% (VanEck HY Muni) --- MUB = -.07% /+1.95% (I Shares, National Muni Bond) --- EMB = +.65%/+8.63% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond) --- CWB = +1.20% / +5.64% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities) --- PFF = +1.49% / +11.86% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities) --- FZDXX = 5.04% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please. Remain curious, Catch
"Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday." Do you mean price? If not, which bond [fund?] NAVs do you follow?
I think a deeper dive into PFF would be good for us to understand its TR behavior YTD and its prospects going forward (on any time scale you prefer). As I look at TLT or IEF, PFF did very well. Was the difference driven by getting to par ($25, $1000, whatever it holds) because equities (credit?) have done well or something else? So, is a higher duration BBB- / BB+ fund a good approximation for PFF, except prefered's tilt to financial sector?
"Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday." Do you mean price? If not, which bond [fund?] NAVs do you follow?
Yes, the NAV's are the price; or what we would pay to buy a particular etf through the day. This isn't necessarily critical information; but allowed me to think that buying, at the week ending (Friday), was taking place after being down from the previous days. One may look at this link below, again on Monday and follow the pricing to discover whether there is any follow through in buying from the week end. I can't provide anything useful about PFF; but apparently the current investments are in the proper places at this time. We do not hold this etf. I follow about 20 funds via Google Finance. About 8 of them are investments we hold, but others are market sector etf's; be they bond or equity related. One may create their own 'follow' list at Google Finance, without the need to 'sign in'; unless there have been changes I'm not aware of. You may give it a try to discover if there is any value, if you really choose to follow items through the day. Otherwise, you can enter a ticker as needed for a 'look'.
This is what the etf PFF looks like for 1 day at Google Finance, which is this past Friday. You may also click 5 day to see all of last week and price moves. Return numbers do not include distributions; so not total return, to the best of my knowledge.
M* quote page for PFF. This is the Friday data on the graph. One can see the price rotation to positive after NOON. The etf IEF and other bond etf's show a similar pattern. You may save this page link and type in any ticker in the search at the top for a quote; and/or click on the 'performance' icon for that info.
Lastly, this is all for now. Our COVID funk is still hanging around with fatigue; and for me, I've lost my sense of taste...........bummer, for sure.
My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the select bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
Birth Announcement: MMKT, a money market etf; that began life this past Wednesday. LINK Though not a direct bond product, but does use same; and is an income product via yield, but now with the 'risk factor' of etf pricing. FLASHBACK, BOND YIELD LOCKUP: Once the full impact of the serious nature of COVID became apparent globally; there was a two day period at March 9, 2020 when bond yields dropped to low yields and were locked into this yield until FED and Treasury interventions. I save some charts/graphs and below is one I found last week.
March 9, 2020 --- 30 yr yield = .94% --- 10 yr yield = .50% --- 5 yr yield = .43% --- 1 yr yield = .29%
W/E September 27, 2024..... Zig Zag returns for bonds during the week
--- This week found the w/e with mixed results for bond sectors. TIPS related funds are still performing well. Many bond NAV's had positive moves on Friday, in the range of +.2 thru +.5% that offset down days for the week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 23 - September 27, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.7% yield. Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield.
--- AGG = +.02% / +4.79% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings) --- MINT = +.12% / +4.52% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated) --- SHY = +.07% / +4.15% (UST 1-3 yr bills) --- IEI = +.04% / +4.52% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds) --- IEF = -.03% / +4.45% (UST 7-10 yr bonds) --- TIP = -.01% / +4.91% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration) --- VTIP = +.08% / +4.96% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) --- STPZ = +.04% / +4.96% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- LTPZ = -.28% / +4.64 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- TLT = -.31% / +2.33% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond --- EDV = -.6-% / +.93% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds) --- ZROZ = -.80% / -1.11% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO --- TBT = +1.02% / +1.55% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings) --- TMF = -1,42% / -7.4% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf) *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference: --- BAGIX = +.02% / +5.23% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) --- LQD = -.17% / +5.41% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds) --- BKLN = +.00% / +5.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower) --- HYG = +.12% / +8.17% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF) --- HYD = +.46%/+5.80% (VanEck HY Muni) --- MUB = +.31% /+2.27% (I Shares, National Muni Bond) --- EMB = -.15%/+8.47% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond) --- CWB = +1.67% / +7.41% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities) --- PFF = -.09% / +11.76% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities) --- FZDXX = 4.70% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please. Remain curious, Catch
Lastly, this is all for now. Our COVID funk is still hanging around with fatigue; and for me, I've lost my sense of taste...........bummer, for sure.
Among the older demographics, we have to be careful and there are anti-viral medications that your primary care physician can prescribe. Don’t know if this may be a bit late now. COVID booster shot can prevent serious hospitalization but the symptoms will linger depending on the individual health.
We are glad to see you are back posting on bonds. Yields on money market funds are falling as you stated FZDXX to below 5% now. By year end it will fall another 50 or 75 bps to match the FED’s rate cut.
My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
W/E October 4, 2024..... Overall face slap for bond NAV's
--- This week found the w/e NAV price results for the vast majority of bond sectors to have followed the overall trend for each day of the week; down, down, down. If there was any flight to safety from the ongoing conflict in the middle east, it was not very apparent in government issues; as pricing was quite negative for this area. Very positive employment data reduced the hopes for FED actions to reduce interest rates at a larger and for a longer period of time. Yields were higher for the week. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 30 - October 4, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.7% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield.
--- AGG = -1.22% / +3.51% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings) --- MINT = +.08% / +4.61% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated) --- SHY = -.57% / +3.55% (UST 1-3 yr bills) --- IEI = -1.25% / +3.21% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds) --- IEF = -1.67% / +2.71% (UST 7-10 yr bonds) --- TIP = -.93% / +3.94% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration) --- VTIP = -.39% / +4.54% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) --- STPZ = -.53% / +4.40% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- LTPZ = -1.67% / +2.89 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- TLT = -2.75% / -.48% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond --- EDV = -3.55% / -2.67% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds) --- ZROZ = -3.67% / -4.74% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO --- TBT = +5.93% / +7.57% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings) --- TMF = -8.34% / -15.1% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf) *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference: --- BAGIX = -1.29% / +3.87% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) --- LQD = -1.18% / +4.16% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds) --- BKLN = +.48% / +6.04% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower) --- HYG = -.46% / +7.67% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF) --- HYD = -.19%/+5.60% (VanEck HY Muni) --- MUB = -.37% /+1.89% (I Shares, National Muni Bond) --- EMB = -.57%/+7.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond) --- CWB = -.18% / +7.61% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities) --- PFF = -.34% / +11.38% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities) --- FZDXX = 4.70% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please. Remain curious, Catch
Are we beginning to see bond vigilantes in action? Or are people just bummed out by the employment report and the Fed cutting back on the punch bowl?
Trading and investing can often be counterintuitive. How often have we heard (including from me) that you don’t want to be in the floating rate bank loan category when rates (Fed funds) are declining. Not just last week but over the past two months the bank loan funds are doing more than fine. One bond category that survived last week especially the last few days when bond navs were declining have been the CLO ETFs.
Are we beginning to see bond vigilantes in action? Or are people just bummed out by the employment report and the Fed cutting back on the punch bowl?
Trading and investing can often be counterintuitive. How often have we heard (including from me) that you don’t want to be in the floating rate bank loan category when rates (Fed funds) are declining. Not just last week but over the past two months the bank loan funds are doing more than fine. One bond category that survived last week especially the last few days when bond navs were declining have been the CLO ETFs.
I've been keeping my eye on the bank loans. I wrap them up with the various floaters though they're a different quality. FFRHX held up pretty well during the ZIRP days despite getting trounced in '08 and '22. That would be a more speculative investment
I'm not really interested in trading. I think I can sleep sounder, and beat SPAXX, after I rearrange a few deck chairs.
The strong employment data released on Friday affected different bond sectors differently. The lower risk, investment grade and muni bonds got hit much harder than those of riskier high yield bonds. Bank loans held up well even though many suggested they may not fare well in decline rate environment. We will see next few weeks as dust settle.
Not picking on anyone in particular, just wondering out loud because I am ignorant on the topic:
People say that bank loans don't hold their value during declining rates environments, but I see that fifteen year returns for FFRHX are at 4.6% during an era of low rates and low inflation. Maybe it just looks good because 2008 has rolled off.
I have the same question too. If bank loan bonds are risky, why does David Giruox, PRWCX holds 7-10% of bank loan in the portfolio? He spoke why he held bank loans and other high yield bonds being held in the portfolio. And yet the fund done well through several full market cycles.
In spring 2020’s pandemics, bank loan funds underwent a free fall as many of the oil fracking bonds went busted. Same goes for junk bonds. Only Treasury’s stay unaffected. Then came the FED emergency rate cut.
How far does anyone think this reversal on the 10 year may go? I understand the “bond vigilantes” taking control of longer rates out of the Fed’s hands (not that they ever really had it) but am surprised by the speed and magnitude of the reversal. Friday’s hot jobs report really blew the lid off the rate structure. Just a temporary bump - or are we heading a lot higher? The damn election throws a whole lot of monkey wrenches into the equation too, with several possible outcomes. I think the Fed is being a little restrained right now due to the election. At some point afterward (assuming it ever ends) they might decide to clamp down harder if the economy keeps running hot. And, counterintutively, that could cause the short end to spike and longer rates to drop.
Maybe too off topic - But does anyone think as I do that the big gains in equities the past 2 years (and to a lesser degree bonds and cash) are helping keep the economy hot by providing consumer spending stimulus - mostly for the people who already have enough? So to a degree it becomes a virtuous circle with spending propping up stocks and stocks propping up spending. What could possibly go wrong? Just some far out thoughts. You won’t hear this on Bloomberg.
Anybody know what’s coming? Is that light at the end of the tunnel a locomotive heading our way? I don’t pretend to know. Just throwing some crazy questions out there for the smarter board members.
My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
NOTE TWO: I MAY NOT have a report next week, as the Shop Vac comes out on Friday to remove my gall bladder. I don't know what condition, my condition will be in.....
FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections info and the terrible hurricane(s) reports and the resulting suffering. Ukraine and Russia are still busy with war. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
W/E October 11 , 2024..... Make your best guess week for bond NAV's
--- I was away from market news for the week, so I only have bits and pieces of the weekly picture based on the NAV's. This week found the w/e NAV price results for many of the bond sectors to have followed the overall trend for the majority of the week; down, down, down. The weekly broad bonds sectors found the long duration to be out of favor, some of the short duration had modest gains and shorter duration TIPS were more happy. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and these remains for this week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 7 - October11, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.67% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.46% / +3.03% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings) --- MINT = +.14% / +4.75% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated) --- SHY = +.02% / +3.57% (UST 1-3 yr bills) --- IEI = -.23% / +2.98% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds) --- IEF = -.63% / +2.06% (UST 7-10 yr bonds) --- TIP = +.08% / +4.02% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration) --- VTIP = +.23% / +4.78% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) --- STPZ = +.30% / +4.72% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- LTPZ = -.76% / +2.11 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- TLT = -1.94% / -2.41% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond --- EDV = -2.82% / -5.42% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds) --- ZROZ = -3.19% / -7.78% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO --- TBT = +4.09% / 11.98% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings) --- TMF = -5.85% / -20.09% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf) *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference: --- BAGIX = -.40% / +3.45% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) --- LQD = -.64% / +3.50% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds) --- BKLN = +.33% / +6.39% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower) --- HYG = -.04% / +7.63% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF) --- HYD = -.23%/+5.36% (VanEck HY Muni) --- MUB = -.21% /+1.67% (I Shares, National Muni Bond) --- EMB = -.49%/+7.33% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond) --- CWB = +1.03% / +8.71% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities) --- PFF = +.24% / +11.65% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities) --- FZDXX = 4.67% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please. Remain curious, Catch
Thank you @Derf This surgery should have already been complete the first week of September.......but, for our first time; Covid arrived for both of us. Pretty much okay with that now; but now I will be in the slow mode for several weeks of physical healing and also having to change my diet for about a month to discovery how my body reacts of 'no' gall bladder.
I saw an S&P target of 8,000 by the end of the decade from a perma bull. While that number looks big, it is only about 33% over the next six years. That comes to about 5% per year or 6% inclusive of dividends and an equity risk premium of only 2% at the current 10 yr yield of 4.10%. I am tempted to reduce equity exposure in favor of high yield corporate bond fund(s) yielding at 6+%.
It is reasonable to reduce equity risk in light of high valuation and many uncertainties. Bonds got complicated with stronger employment number than expected. Is it a one off or not?
Now that the generous 5% yield in Monet market, CD, and T bills have disappeared since the FED cut rate in September. So either the investors accept lower yields or take a bit more risk to invest in short term bonds. @catch's bond data reported above point to where one can invest in.
@Derf, Reinvestment risk has arrived as the safe 5% yield CDs and money market are no longer exist. Unless 4% yield is acceptable to you, I think there are other viable choices.
I track the short duration indices/funds such as MINT and SHY and invest in government and corporate bond index funds. The yields are in the range of 4.0-4.5%, and the total return % range about 4%.
Intermediate duration bonds are as far as I would invest. Their yields are a bit lower but the bond prices will go up in the rate cut cycle through 2025. Here is where I moved $ to as CDs and T bill matured. So far so good.
Some posters here prefer junk bonds which have done well this yield yields over 6%. Here you need to made your own decision. I prefer to strike a balance between risk and reward.
My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
NOTE TWO: I am feeling decent after gall bladder removal on Friday morning. I'll take this opportunity for my P.S.A. If you or yours need this surgery and are in decent health; all will be well. My surgery was required due to 'polyps' in the bladder, which is always a removal of the bladder. There will be the normal biopsy of this tissue. Four small incisions in the tummy area; and the camera view found all the surrounding area to be 'happy'. I've used only 3 'hydrocodone' pills for pain on Friday, but none needed for Saturday (today); as I don't have discomfort at this point; but will take more meds if needed. So, if you have a need for this surgery (laparoscopic), and have a competent surgeon, as I did; please don't be overly anxious.
FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections info and the terrible hurricane(s) reports and the resulting suffering that remains. Ukraine and Russia are still busy with war. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
W/E October 18 , 2024..... Every which way for bond NAV's this week
--- Generally, the U.S. economic reports news was positive this week; which added impact upon some bond sectors. 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'a very mixed bag' for this weeks pricing. Monday was a retail holiday, with mid-week finding various directions. Many of the bond funds found positive moves on Friday. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, will find both smiles and otherwise. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and these remains for this week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 14 - October 17, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.67% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
--- AGG = +.02% / +3.06% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings) --- MINT = +.08% / +4.84% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated) --- SHY = +.06% / +3.64% (UST 1-3 yr bills) --- IEI = +.08% / +3.05% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds) --- IEF = +.08% / +2.14% (UST 7-10 yr bonds) --- TIP = -.11% / +3.91% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration) --- VTIP = -.08% / +4.69% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) --- STPZ = -.11% / +4.60% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- LTPZ = -.04% / +2.06 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO) --- TLT = +.18% / -2.23% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond --- EDV = +.27% / -5.16% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds) --- ZROZ = +.63% / -7.20% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO --- TBT = -.15% / 11.80% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings) --- TMF = +.20% / -19.93% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf) *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference: --- BAGIX = +.10% / +3.56% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) --- LQD = -.05% / +3.44% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds) --- BKLN = +.14% / +6.54% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower) --- HYG = +.29% / +7.94% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF) --- HYD = +.11%/+5.48% (VanEck HY Muni) --- MUB = +.11% /+1.78% (I Shares, National Muni Bond) --- EMB = +.32%/+7.67% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond) --- CWB = +.32% / +9.07% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities) --- PFF = +.69% / +12.42% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities) --- FZDXX = 4.67% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please. Remain curious, Catch
Comments
--- With FED Reserve actions this week found the w/e with mixed results for bond sectors. High yield is still happy, quality corp. bonds did well, as did short duration TIPs related, short duration Treasury was mixed and long duration was NOT very happy. Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 16 - September 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.04% yield. MMKT's yields found LARGE yield drops after Wednesday (FED Reserve) . Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's. As a percentage of YIELD, yields were down from 1.42% through 2.14% for 3 Fido MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. SOFR rates had a yield drop of -9.57%. WHAT is SOFR?
--- AGG = -.26% / +4.77% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.17% / +4.40% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.07% / +4.07% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +1.06% / +4.29% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.47% / +4.48% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.10% / +4.92% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.28% / +4.87% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.24% / +4.92% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.41% / +4.93% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.54% / +2.65% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.08% / +1.62% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.47% / -.31% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.06% / +.52% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -4.64% / -6.07% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.20% / +5.21% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.21% / +5.58% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.19% / +5.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.79% / +8.04% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.07%/+5.31% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.07% /+1.95% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.65%/+8.63% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.20% / +5.64% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +1.49% / +11.86% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.04% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
I think a deeper dive into PFF would be good for us to understand its TR behavior YTD and its prospects going forward (on any time scale you prefer). As I look at TLT or IEF, PFF did very well. Was the difference driven by getting to par ($25, $1000, whatever it holds) because equities (credit?) have done well or something else? So, is a higher duration BBB- / BB+ fund a good approximation for PFF, except prefered's tilt to financial sector?
I plan to look into later -
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239826/PFF?cid=ppc:ishares_us:google:fund-names&gad_source=1&gclsrc=ds
I can't provide anything useful about PFF; but apparently the current investments are in the proper places at this time. We do not hold this etf.
I follow about 20 funds via Google Finance. About 8 of them are investments we hold, but others are market sector etf's; be they bond or equity related. One may create their own 'follow' list at Google Finance, without the need to 'sign in'; unless there have been changes I'm not aware of. You may give it a try to discover if there is any value, if you really choose to follow items through the day. Otherwise, you can enter a ticker as needed for a 'look'.
This is what the etf PFF looks like for 1 day at Google Finance, which is this past Friday. You may also click 5 day to see all of last week and price moves. Return numbers do not include distributions; so not total return, to the best of my knowledge.
M* quote page for PFF. This is the Friday data on the graph. One can see the price rotation to positive after NOON. The etf IEF and other bond etf's show a similar pattern. You may save this page link and type in any ticker in the search at the top for a quote; and/or click on the 'performance' icon for that info.
Lastly, this is all for now. Our COVID funk is still hanging around with fatigue; and for me, I've lost my sense of taste...........bummer, for sure.
Fed's Goolsbee. Many more rate cuts over the next year. Article LINK.
FLASHBACK, BOND YIELD LOCKUP: Once the full impact of the serious nature of COVID became apparent globally; there was a two day period at March 9, 2020 when bond yields dropped to low yields and were locked into this yield until FED and Treasury interventions. I save some charts/graphs and below is one I found last week.
March 9, 2020
--- 30 yr yield = .94%
--- 10 yr yield = .50%
--- 5 yr yield = .43%
--- 1 yr yield = .29%
GRAPH
W/E September 27, 2024..... Zig Zag returns for bonds during the week
--- This week found the w/e with mixed results for bond sectors. TIPS related funds are still performing well. Many bond NAV's had positive moves on Friday, in the range of +.2 thru +.5% that offset down days for the week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 23 - September 27, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.7% yield. Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield.
--- AGG = +.02% / +4.79% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.12% / +4.52% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.07% / +4.15% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.04% / +4.52% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.03% / +4.45% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.01% / +4.91% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.08% / +4.96% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.04% / +4.96% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.28% / +4.64 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -.31% / +2.33% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -.6-% / +.93% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -.80% / -1.11% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +1.02% / +1.55% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -1,42% / -7.4% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.02% / +5.23% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.17% / +5.41% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.00% / +5.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.12% / +8.17% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.46%/+5.80% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.31% /+2.27% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.15%/+8.47% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.67% / +7.41% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.09% / +11.76% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.70% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
We are glad to see you are back posting on bonds. Yields on money market funds are falling as you stated FZDXX to below 5% now. By year end it will fall another 50 or 75 bps to match the FED’s rate cut.
W/E October 4, 2024..... Overall face slap for bond NAV's
--- This week found the w/e NAV price results for the vast majority of bond sectors to have followed the overall trend for each day of the week; down, down, down. If there was any flight to safety from the ongoing conflict in the middle east, it was not very apparent in government issues; as pricing was quite negative for this area. Very positive employment data reduced the hopes for FED actions to reduce interest rates at a larger and for a longer period of time. Yields were higher for the week. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 30 - October 4, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.7% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield.
--- AGG = -1.22% / +3.51% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +4.61% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.57% / +3.55% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -1.25% / +3.21% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -1.67% / +2.71% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.93% / +3.94% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.39% / +4.54% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.53% / +4.40% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -1.67% / +2.89 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -2.75% / -.48% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -3.55% / -2.67% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -3.67% / -4.74% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +5.93% / +7.57% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -8.34% / -15.1% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -1.29% / +3.87% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -1.18% / +4.16% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.48% / +6.04% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.46% / +7.67% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -.19%/+5.60% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.37% /+1.89% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.57%/+7.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -.18% / +7.61% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.34% / +11.38% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.70% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
I'm not really interested in trading. I think I can sleep sounder, and beat SPAXX, after I rearrange a few deck chairs.
We shall see what's shaking on Monday.
People say that bank loans don't hold their value during declining rates environments, but I see that fifteen year returns for FFRHX are at 4.6% during an era of low rates and low inflation. Maybe it just looks good because 2008 has rolled off.
In spring 2020’s pandemics, bank loan funds underwent a free fall as many of the oil fracking bonds went busted. Same goes for junk bonds. Only Treasury’s stay unaffected. Then came the FED emergency rate cut.
Maybe too off topic - But does anyone think as I do that the big gains in equities the past 2 years (and to a lesser degree bonds and cash) are helping keep the economy hot by providing consumer spending stimulus - mostly for the people who already have enough? So to a degree it becomes a virtuous circle with spending propping up stocks and stocks propping up spending. What could possibly go wrong? Just some far out thoughts. You won’t hear this on Bloomberg.
Anybody know what’s coming? Is that light at the end of the tunnel a locomotive heading our way? I don’t pretend to know. Just throwing some crazy questions out there for the smarter board members.
FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections info and the terrible hurricane(s) reports and the resulting suffering. Ukraine and Russia are still busy with war. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
W/E October 11 , 2024..... Make your best guess week for bond NAV's
--- I was away from market news for the week, so I only have bits and pieces of the weekly picture based on the NAV's. This week found the w/e NAV price results for many of the bond sectors to have followed the overall trend for the majority of the week; down, down, down. The weekly broad bonds sectors found the long duration to be out of favor, some of the short duration had modest gains and shorter duration TIPS were more happy. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and these remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 7 - October11, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.67% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.46% / +3.03% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.14% / +4.75% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.02% / +3.57% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.23% / +2.98% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.63% / +2.06% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.08% / +4.02% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.23% / +4.78% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.30% / +4.72% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.76% / +2.11 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.94% / -2.41% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.82% / -5.42% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -3.19% / -7.78% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +4.09% / 11.98% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -5.85% / -20.09% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.40% / +3.45% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.64% / +3.50% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.33% / +6.39% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.04% / +7.63% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -.23%/+5.36% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.21% /+1.67% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.49%/+7.33% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.03% / +8.71% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +.24% / +11.65% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.67% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
Now that the generous 5% yield in Monet market, CD, and T bills have disappeared since the FED cut rate in September. So either the investors accept lower yields or take a bit more risk to invest in short term bonds. @catch's bond data reported above point to where one can invest in.
I track the short duration indices/funds such as MINT and SHY and invest in government and corporate bond index funds. The yields are in the range of 4.0-4.5%, and the total return % range about 4%.
Intermediate duration bonds are as far as I would invest. Their yields are a bit lower but the bond prices will go up in the rate cut cycle through 2025. Here is where I moved $ to as CDs and T bill matured. So far so good.
Some posters here prefer junk bonds which have done well this yield yields over 6%. Here you need to made your own decision. I prefer to strike a balance between risk and reward.
FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections info and the terrible hurricane(s) reports and the resulting suffering that remains. Ukraine and Russia are still busy with war. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
W/E October 18 , 2024..... Every which way for bond NAV's this week
--- Generally, the U.S. economic reports news was positive this week; which added impact upon some bond sectors. 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'a very mixed bag' for this weeks pricing. Monday was a retail holiday, with mid-week finding various directions. Many of the bond funds found positive moves on Friday. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, will find both smiles and otherwise. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and these remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 14 - October 17, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.67% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
--- AGG = +.02% / +3.06% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +4.84% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.06% / +3.64% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.08% / +3.05% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.08% / +2.14% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.11% / +3.91% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.08% / +4.69% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.11% / +4.60% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.04% / +2.06 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +.18% / -2.23% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +.27% / -5.16% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +.63% / -7.20% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -.15% / 11.80% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +.20% / -19.93% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.10% / +3.56% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.05% / +3.44% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.14% / +6.54% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.29% / +7.94% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.11%/+5.48% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.11% /+1.78% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.32%/+7.67% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +.32% / +9.07% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +.69% / +12.42% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.67% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
Website shows 30-day SEC yield 4.75%, 10/18/24.
https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/etfs/fixed-income/usfr
Treasury shows FRN Index at 4.567%, 10/18/24. This is the variable rate for FRNs.
USFR has ER of 15 bps.