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AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/31/24

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/31/24

BULLISH remained the top sentiment (44.9%, above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (25.2%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (29.9%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +19.7% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (127+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (42+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 71.65% (overbought). FOMC held rates; September cut would depend on additional data. Treasury spreads 2Y/10Y negative, 2Y/30Y positive. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1583/thread

Comments

  • hank
    edited August 1
    Interesting trivia today from Bloomberg Media (August 1, 2024)

    ”The words ‘Federal Reserve’ were on track to be mentioned about 380 times on second-quarter calls with analysts, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transcripts of S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 companies. That would be the highest tally ever in the database’s records going back to 2001, if the current pace holds.”

    Some added Bloomberg reporting today …

    - While the Fed did not cut rates at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, they signaled that they might cut rates at the next meeting in September.

    - Bond traders appear to be pricing in 3 Federal Reserve rate cuts by year’s end.

    - Jobless claims surprised on the upside today.

    - The 10-Year Treasury yield fell below 4% today.
  • Sven
    From another Bloomberg article,
    Jerome Powell signaled Wednesday officials are on course to cut rates in September unless inflation progress stalls — citing risks of further jobs weakening. Monthly employment data due Friday will probably add fuel to the debate. Unemployment is now close to triggering a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm that has a perfect track record over the last half-century — the “Sahm rule.”
    The word recession has not been mentioned much lately. Labor market data tend to be lagging indicators.
  • Derf
    Looking at the market, a few minutes before the close, & seems the sentiment has it wrong ! Now I'm wondering , if the weather person or Mr. AAII sentiment has the best chance of getting it right ?
  • Sven
    AAII sentiment is just a snapshot in time. There are many moving parts involved in the economy and they change rapidly. Who would think the 10 year treasury yield dropped between 4.0% since early Feb 2024? Manufacturing data indicates a slowing trend for several consecutive months. Friday’s non farm employment data will reveal more. As of Thursday’s closing, all 3 indices are down 1.2 - 2.3%.

    My bonds are holding up well.
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