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Conversation Between Jeff Gundlach and David Rosenberg (fairly recent)
Mr G, used to be the bond king, but he has been naked for years. FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html) "Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2% ==================== MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html) G: stocks will go higher from here
Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
==================
August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down" Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move. ==================
Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html) EM should out perform. Reality: they under performed Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 31%. The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat ==================
Gundlach, the king (without cloths) of bonds, predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
@FD1000 - I found it a thoroughly enjoyable one hour discussion. I didn’t watch expecting to hear any predictions. There weren’t many predictions - of the investment type anyways. But while we’re on the subject I’ll note that making forward looking predictions is a lot harder than making backward looking ones.
Dunno Derf. I stopped watching NBA at least a month ago. Only watch BB on my 5x5’ wall mounted movie screen (using a projector TV). Game is so fast moving. But it doesn’t look good on the big screen in the summer when it stays daylight so long. Have been watching MLB (much slower paced sport) on a regular TV.
Thanks for asking.
The Gundlach video is fascinating I think. I realize both he and Rosenberg are dealing from a right-of-center political station where government debt is central to their market analysis. I don’t have to agree with their perspective to enjoy and learn from the discussion. Gundlach comes across as very bright - if just a bit arrogant. But he’s trying hard to be humble.
@FD1000 - I found it a thoroughly enjoyable one hour discussion. I didn’t watch expecting to hear any predictions. There weren’t many predictions - of the investment type anyways. But while we’re on the subject I’ll note that making forward looking predictions is a lot harder than making backward looking ones.
First, I don't make predictions, especially not on TV and make a fool out of myself like these guys (link). Second, I make observations based on current market conditions. Third, I have used these observations when risk is high to get out of the market and avoid meltdowns, and get back when markets reach bottoms and start climbing up. You can see several here (link)
Comments
01/2019 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bear-david-rosenberg-125800678.html) "growth will turn negative in 2019 as the stock market flounders". SPY made over 31%
01/2024 (https://themarket.ch/interview/now-is-a-good-time-to-take-profits-and-thank-your-lucky-stars-ld.10391) "Good time to take profit" SPY made over 11%.
Mr G, used to be the bond king, but he has been naked for years.
FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
"Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
====================
MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
G: stocks will go higher from here
Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
==================
August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
==================
Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
EM should out perform. Reality: they under performed
Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 31%.
The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
==================
Gundlach, the king (without cloths) of bonds, predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%.
Thanks for asking.
The Gundlach video is fascinating I think. I realize both he and Rosenberg are dealing from a right-of-center political station where government debt is central to their market analysis. I don’t have to agree with their perspective to enjoy and learn from the discussion. Gundlach comes across as very bright - if just a bit arrogant. But he’s trying hard to be humble.
Second, I make observations based on current market conditions.
Third, I have used these observations when risk is high to get out of the market and avoid meltdowns, and get back when markets reach bottoms and start climbing up.
You can see several here (link)