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Morningstar JR on SOR Risks

The SOR risks are high during the decumulation phase. Much of the portfolio literature is on the accumulation phase or on point-to-point TR. There are also good related threads on ProBoards forums (BB, YBB)


  • I have been in the decumulation phase for five years now. It’s not just a phase . The risk of loss of capital seems a bigger deal as the clock runs down. As someone who is not investing for future generations preserving capital must be balanced carefully against the risks that come with growing it. Just my 2 cents.
  • Good useful summary, although the example of worse case losses being 2% a year seems a bit optimistic. Averaged over 10 years it comes closer.

    He doesn't mention the importance of the source of the withdrawals, ie taking money from bonds when stock market down etc.

    Delaying the inflation adjustment also saves the suggested portfolio in several other examples ie "The All Weather Retirement Portfolio" by Randy Thurman.

    One of the most complex discussions of allocations and withdrawal rates I have read is "Living Off Your Money" by Michael McClung. It has dozens of allocations and methods of withdrawal, almost too many. But they are all back tested with 40 to 50 years of data

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