COVER STORY “It’s Time to Stop Crying About BONDs and Buy Them Instead”. 2023 may (hopefully) end the worst-ever 3-yr stretch for TREASURIES. Other investment-grade bonds have also suffered. But the RATES are peaking, and focus should be on what comes next (rather than crying over the spilled milk). Hedge-fund manager Bill ACKMAN has covered his Treasury shorts. Yields are much higher now, and much of the bond return is from their starting yields. Bond prices are related to DURATION and longer-term bonds have more kick (up/down). Taxable bonds are oversold and are more attractive than comparable munis. INFLATION-expectations are moderate around +2.5%. Investment-grade bonds may resume their traditional BALLAST role and 60-40 portfolios also look attractive. RISKS include higher persistent inflation, the FED losing control to BOND VIGILANTES, reduced global DEMAND for Treasuries and DOLLAR. The high short-term yields won’t last and it’s time to extend duration/maturity through intermediate-term bonds and/or bond ladders. Mentioned are funds representing a broad spectrum: VMFXX, PFIAX,
AGG/BND, OSTIX, BASIX,
BINC (new).
Long-Treasury etf
TLT is having a lousy year again (3rd), but investors continue to pour money into it (#3 etf inflows YTD) in the hopes of a turnaround soon (2024?). The better performing HY
JNK may do the opposite.
(At MFO, ETF incorrectly hyperlinks to something. So, using etf to avoid that.
@Charles)
INCOME. Attractive consumer-staples include
CLX, HLN, KVUE (
JNJ spinoff), LW, PG; etf
XLP.
FUNDS. Ouch! If you own bond index funds, then you are suffering from a 3rd bad year. Indexing is difficult for bonds. Many issues are illiquid and may not trade often. Active bond funds may be desirable in specialized FI areas.
Core – Indexed
AGG, BNDCore – Active VCORX
Multisector PONAX (these combine sovereigns, corporates, HYs, EMs)
HY – Indexed
HYGHY – Active BHYAX, RSIVX, VWEHX
Munis – Indexed
MUBMunis – Active
HMOP, MDNLX, VWAHX
(by
@LewisBraham at MFO)
FUNDS. BERKOWITZ’ LC value FAIRX is doing well YTD due to its 82% of assets in FL real estate developer St Joe/
JOE (extreme concentration). Almost 33% of the $340 million AUM fund is held by Berkowitz’s family members and they don’t mind paying 1% ER. The AUM peaked after Berkowitz was named Manager of the Decade by M* in 2010, but there have been persistent outflows since then. Institutional holders may redeem the fund for JOE stock. Investor/personal returns (M* statistic on asset-weighted returns) have been poor. (by
@LewisBraham at MFO)
Byron WIEN passed away at 90 (1933-2023). He was well-known for his annual lists of 10 Surprises, 20 Life Lessons, Summer Lunches in Hamptons, etc. His philosophy on predictions (and he made many) was that they were meant to be thought-provoking contemporaneously and it didn’t matter whether they turned out to be right or wrong (and he didn’t keep score himself, but others did). A world traveler, his mobility recently was limited by a hip injury, and he relied on Zoom. A nerdy Chicago kid, he was lucky to get into Harvard. His long career was at Morgan Stanley/
MS (retired in 2001), Pequot, Blackstone/
BX (2009- ). He was quoted often in the media and in Barron’s which did a Cover on him in 2016. He noted that sleep is more critical than diet or exercise. A multimillionaire, he lived modestly – he flew commercial; brought leftover restaurant food home; didn’t move from NYC to FL “because” he wasn’t a billionaire to avoid taxes. His philanthropy was for people who needed help and support rather than for arts and museums. He did endow 2 professorships at Harvard and also funded several scholarships there. He was married twice but didn’t have children and had many godchildren.
RETIREMENT. According to a study by MetLife/
MET, 75% of employees could benefit from high-deductible health plans (that is poor naming/framing) and HSAs. But only 45% of employers offer HSAs and only 29% of employees use HSAs. The employee benefits are from lower plan premiums and because the HSA funds can be used tax-free for qualified medical expenses and in retirement (so, it’s like a super-401k/403b). HSAs are also portable. But HSA contribution must stop when Medicare begins; however, the HSA-funds can still be used for medical expenses. (Incorrect MFO hyperlink for HSA)
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/board/12/market-insights 
Comments