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AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/13/23

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/13/23

NEUTRAL became the top sentiment (38.4%; above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (29.2%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (34.4%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +5.2% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (still high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (81+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar flat. Last week seems like a fluke. US FY24 starts on 10/1/23 but no deal yet in DC. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1174/thread

Comments

  • Sven
    @yogibb said,
    stocks were mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar flat. Last week seems like a fluke. US FY24 starts on 10/1/23 but no deal yet in DC. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    If I read you right, there is little direction on the market, up or down.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited September 2023
    I also track other Sentiment indicators. Last week, the AAII Sentiment was an outlier indicating notable improvement, but others remained negative or neutral. But THIS week's AAII Sentiment reading makes it clear that last week was a fluke.

    Most Sentiments are now negative or neutral.


    SENTIMENTS (9/9/23) (next update 9/16/23)

    In hindsight, several sentiment indicators PEAKED around 7/20/23.

    NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D LINE fell; ratio of winners:losers 1:3.

    AAII Bull-Bear Spread +12.6% (above average).

    %Above 50-dMA for NYSE-listed stocks 36.25% (negative); Scale: oversold < 30, negative < 50, positive > 50, overbought > 70 (StockCharts $NYA50R; $SPXA50R for the SP500 is also included in the bottom panel)....

    Delta MSI 52.6% (positive); Scale: oversold < 30, negative < 50, positive > 50, overbought > 70 (a proprietary index for %Above 75-dMA for selected 1,800 stocks). Unclear what day of the week it is released, but it seems to lag other sentiment indicators (Barron’s updates it on late-Fridays). The all-cap $NYA50R is typically closer to it than the large-cap $SPXA50R.
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