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Hawkish-hold, so the fed funds remain at 5.00-5.25%, but it could go up by 25-50 bps by 2023YE; the (bank) reserve balance rate is 5.15%; the discount rate is 5.25%. The pause now is to let the effects of Fed actions so far work given some lag. The 2-yr is a good indicator of where the fed funds may be going. The Fed doesn't want to surprise the markets (so, monitor CME FedWatch). Any Fed rate cuts may not be for 2 years.
The QT continues at -60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -35 billion/mo for MBS. The large Treasury issuance will further reduce financial liquidity. The Fed balance sheet is declining. The Fed is keeping an eye on money-markets. But the Fed only watches the Treasury and fiscal (by Congress) actions.
The economy has slowed. The inflation has moderated but is still high (PCE +4.4%, core PCE +4.7%). The service inflation is sticky. The goal remains average +2% inflation to be achieved without causing much damage the the economy. Soft landing is possible. The labor market is tight and wages will rise, but slower growth will be desirable; labor demand still exceed supply. The consumer spending is also strong. The Fed can only watch the news on labor strikes.
Housing has slowed due to higher mortgage rates and lease renewals have been weak.
Regional banking has stabilized. Credit conditions has tightened. Many small banks have significant CRE exposures and some may have trouble. The Fed is keeping an eye on systemic risks in banks and nonbank financials (that is where problems were during the pandemic).
The CME FedWatch has to adjust a LOT to fit the Fed's narrative of possibly 2 more hikes in 2023, and no cuts for almost 2 years (Powell said so). Powell also said that he/Fed/FOMC don't want to surprise the markets, so expect lot of Fed speakers jawboning the markets into line.
For the moment, yes. But it wouldn't take much to restart a major problem in this area, and no one seems to have any good idea of how to really stabilize this area. It's not that there's anything particularly new in the nature of the banking system- it's more in the conjunction of well-known banking system weaknesses (pretty much just the nature of the beast) and instantaneous world-wide communications available to depositors, setting the stage for quick and widely developing bank runs.
Comments
Hawkish-hold, so the fed funds remain at 5.00-5.25%, but it could go up by 25-50 bps by 2023YE; the (bank) reserve balance rate is 5.15%; the discount rate is 5.25%. The pause now is to let the effects of Fed actions so far work given some lag. The 2-yr is a good indicator of where the fed funds may be going. The Fed doesn't want to surprise the markets (so, monitor CME FedWatch). Any Fed rate cuts may not be for 2 years.
The QT continues at -60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -35 billion/mo for MBS. The large Treasury issuance will further reduce financial liquidity. The Fed balance sheet is declining. The Fed is keeping an eye on money-markets. But the Fed only watches the Treasury and fiscal (by Congress) actions.
The economy has slowed. The inflation has moderated but is still high (PCE +4.4%, core PCE +4.7%). The service inflation is sticky. The goal remains average +2% inflation to be achieved without causing much damage the the economy. Soft landing is possible. The labor market is tight and wages will rise, but slower growth will be desirable; labor demand still exceed supply. The consumer spending is also strong. The Fed can only watch the news on labor strikes.
Housing has slowed due to higher mortgage rates and lease renewals have been weak.
Regional banking has stabilized. Credit conditions has tightened. Many small banks have significant CRE exposures and some may have trouble. The Fed is keeping an eye on systemic risks in banks and nonbank financials (that is where problems were during the pandemic).
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1070/thread
The CME Fed watch this AM shows hike-hold-hold-hold-cut....
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
For the moment, yes. But it wouldn't take much to restart a major problem in this area, and no one seems to have any good idea of how to really stabilize this area. It's not that there's anything particularly new in the nature of the banking system- it's more in the conjunction of well-known banking system weaknesses (pretty much just the nature of the beast) and instantaneous world-wide communications available to depositors, setting the stage for quick and widely developing bank runs.