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Futures market this morning is nearly flat as the bill moves to the senate and to President Biden. S&P500, +0.2%, DJIA, -0.18%, NASDAZ, -0.12%. https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Our best and brightest, no? I almost think Krugman could have done a better job.
So what happens next?
Stock rally? Stock schmeissing?
Tbills interest rate sky high?
Muddle along?
Everybody goes back to watching inflation indicators and the Fed. I think there's an employment report tomorrow.
The AI rally is the novelty act. Hard to see a wide and deep rally when people can get an easy 5%+ while they watch from the sidelines. I don't see t-bills going a whole lot higher.
But I am often wrong. I didn't think the Cards would recall Jordan Walker until he had seen some of the better pitching staffs in the International League. That would have take him to the All Star break.
What is stock schmeissing? Merriam Webster tells me:
a bid in klaberjass that requires the opponent to accept the bidder's trump suit or abandon the hand
And
German schmeissen to fling, throw away, from Middle High German smīzen to stroke, smear, strike, from Old High German -smīzan (in bismīzan to defile, stain)
I'm guessing you're thinking of the second example.
US Congress averts historic default, approves debt-limit suspension
"The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden that lifts the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, averting what would have been a first-ever default."
"The Senate voted 63-36 to approve the bill that had been passed on Wednesday by the House of Representatives, as lawmakers raced against the clock following months of partisan bickering between Democrats and Republicans."
"With this legislation, the statutory limit on federal borrowing will be suspended until Jan. 1, 2025. Unlike most other developed countries, the United States limits the amount of debt the government can borrow, regardless of any spending allocated by the legislature."
"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, meanwhile, issued some pointed advice saying, 'I continue to strongly believe that the full faith and credit of the United States must never be used as a bargaining chip,' as Republicans did over the past several months."
Interesting that it was a debt-ceiling suspension (vs an increase by certain amount) to 1/1/25. So, there may be lot of spending coming forward. Strange that the new deadline would be during a possible limbo period between the elections and when a new government comes in. But the Treasury will have the tricks of extraordinary measures to continue for months beyond that deadline. IMO, a better date could have been a few weeks after the inauguration date in 2025.
I do agree with Yellen that debt-ceiling issue shouldn't be tied to other issues - as it reflects what has been appropriated already. I wish that Congressional appropriations and corresponding debt-ceiling adjustments were concurrent. But then, how can the President, the House and the Senate can have "fun" making the DC "sausage"?
Also interesting that Japan and HK did far better (Europe not bad either) than the US futures indications now. May be the creditors are more relieved by this than the debtor.
I am weary of debating/discussiong debt/default issues. Glad there is at least a temporary resolution and we can return to other market issues, such as future interest rate decisions and how to invest going forward.
The U.S. economy continued to crank out jobs in May, with nonfarm payrolls surging more than expected despite multiple headwinds, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% against the estimate for 3.5%, just above the lowest level since 1969.
I wonder how Mr. Market will like that. I don't think the Fed will.
The U.S. economy continued to crank out jobs in May, with nonfarm payrolls surging more than expected despite multiple headwinds, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% against the estimate for 3.5%, just above the lowest level since 1969.
I wonder how Mr. Market will like that. I don't think the Fed will.
The Fed won't like this report. But they have to be careful in raising overnight fed funds rate. Bank deposits would fly out to MM funds more if they raise rates.
The U.S. economy continued to crank out jobs in May, with nonfarm payrolls surging more than expected despite multiple headwinds, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% against the estimate for 3.5%, just above the lowest level since 1969.
I wonder how Mr. Market will like that. I don't think the Fed will.
The Fed won't like this report. But they have to be careful in raising overnight fed funds rate. Bank deposits would fly out to MM funds more if they raise rates.
Too late for that. Moving taxable cash into money markets this AM.
Really kind of bipolar markets data etc....first you hear of layoffs increasing then you get this jobs report... I'd hate to be a macro kind of investor right now...how could you trust your quote signals?
Do know that a ton of tech workers were let go but also know that other industries have seen reductions of staff too ..
Still crazy expensive at the grocery store...
Kinda understand folks who buy indexes and why they do it..also kinda like what the fellas at the bretton fund do ..solid companies that they know will do well looking out five years etc .
Do still like that 5% plus tbills CD you can get out there ..
Comments
https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202306010621RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2XN2NI-OUSBS_1?print=true
The moderates on both sides came together to advance the bill.
https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202306010621RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2XN2NI-OUSBS_1?print=true
Futures market this morning is nearly flat as the bill moves to the senate and to President Biden. S&P500, +0.2%, DJIA, -0.18%, NASDAZ, -0.12%.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
So what happens next?
Stock rally? Stock schmeissing?
Tbills interest rate sky high?
Muddle along?
The AI rally is the novelty act. Hard to see a wide and deep rally when people can get an easy 5%+ while they watch from the sidelines. I don't see t-bills going a whole lot higher.
But I am often wrong. I didn't think the Cards would recall Jordan Walker until he had seen some of the better pitching staffs in the International League. That would have take him to the All Star break.
What is stock schmeissing? Merriam Webster tells me: And I'm guessing you're thinking of the second example.
"The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden that lifts the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, averting what would have been a first-ever default."
"The Senate voted 63-36 to approve the bill that had been passed on Wednesday by the House of Representatives, as lawmakers raced against the clock following months of partisan bickering between Democrats and Republicans."
"With this legislation, the statutory limit on federal borrowing will be suspended until Jan. 1, 2025. Unlike most other developed countries, the United States limits the amount of debt the government can borrow, regardless of any spending allocated by the legislature."
"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, meanwhile, issued some pointed advice saying, 'I continue to strongly believe that the full faith and credit of the United States must never be used as a bargaining chip,' as Republicans did over the past several months."
Link
I do agree with Yellen that debt-ceiling issue shouldn't be tied to other issues - as it reflects what has been appropriated already. I wish that Congressional appropriations and corresponding debt-ceiling adjustments were concurrent. But then, how can the President, the House and the Senate can have "fun" making the DC "sausage"?
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit
IRA cash going into USFR.
Do know that a ton of tech workers were let go but also know that other industries have seen reductions of staff too ..
Still crazy expensive at the grocery store...
Kinda understand folks who buy indexes and why they do it..also kinda like what the fellas at the bretton fund do ..solid companies that they know will do well looking out five years etc .
Do still like that 5% plus tbills CD you can get out there ..
Good luck to All
Baseball fan
Here is the NEW for 13-wk T-Bill https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/A_20230602_4.pdf