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What would you do and how do you see it if debt limit kerfuffle turns into a nothing burger?
Nothing different because I assumed the issue would get resolved at the last minute because that’s what has happened in the past. The consequences of default are so dire that everyone except the biggest whack jobs would not want to default. Admittedly, about 30-40% of Congress are whack jobs but that leaves enough sanity to work something out.
I didn't change my investing approach due to this manufactured debt ceiling crisis. I will therefore not make any corresponding changes afterward. My guess is that stock markets will go up in the short-term after this matter is resolved. Beyond that, I have no idea what the markets will do. Regardless of the outcome, this is not a "nothing burger." It is extremely irresponsible to use this maneuver and risk confidence in our nation's ability to pay debts incurred.
Part of @BaseballFan ‘s question seems to relate to the prognosis for the U.S. economy. None of us have a crystal ball. The person who might know the most on that would be Chairman Powell. I don’t think he’s really shown his hand yet. At what point would the Fed be willing to stimulate should we enter recession? Obviously if we plunge into something like the 1930s or even the 2007-09 mess, all bets are off. Risk assets would tank. Most of us would be poorer.
The one thing I've been doing for the past 6 months is periodically adding to IAU (gold etf), all in anticipation of this debt B.S. The only thing I may do after settlement, if it is not a kick-the-can settlement, is unwind the gold exposure.
In the spirit of Dr. Strangelove: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb". Whatever comes, comes and I will ride it down if it breaks loose. Yee, haw, here we go again.
In the spirit of Dr. Strangelove: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb". Whatever comes, comes and I will ride it down if it breaks loose. Yee, haw, here we go again.
The original ending of the movie was supposed to be a massive pie fight in the war-room. Somehow that feels like a totally appropriate way to end the forthcoming "Dr Gridlock: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Debt Ceiling."
Comments
I will therefore not make any corresponding changes afterward.
My guess is that stock markets will go up in the short-term after this matter is resolved.
Beyond that, I have no idea what the markets will do.
Regardless of the outcome, this is not a "nothing burger."
It is extremely irresponsible to use this maneuver and risk confidence in our nation's ability to pay debts incurred.