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I came across this index (STALSTOX:INX) STALSTOX:IND which measures the "collective call" of stock asset allocation by Wall Street firms for asset allocation portfolios. The index now stands at 45ish which relates to a 45% stock weighting. 70 (70% stock allocation) is where this index in the past has peaked so in a sense its a allocation sentiment chart...what the smart minds think and are reccommending. Right now, directionally, the chart seems to be trending upwards from a low of 40.
Here's this index over the last 8 years. As the chart shows todays stock allocation reccomendation of (45) is far below the 200 day moving average of (57) and seems to be rising from a low of (42) which is lowest this index has been over the last 15 years. Sounds bullish for stocks to me.
Interesting Bee, thanks for posting. How funny that the brokerage houses recommendations would be a negative indicator. But how can they be at 45% right now? The recent swing from 60 to 42 just seems like an incredible change.
Bee, Having said that - I track the CBOE Put/Call ratios from the data on their website. It seems to be a positive indicator. When it gets near 2 puts per call think about selling, when it gets near 1 put per call the market will start turning up. Right now it is as low as I have ever seen it. This time it didn't coincide with a market bottom but (if one were to trust such things) it says don't sell just yet.
Here we go! http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx I am a novice and don't allocate money based on this. The only dataset I have seen any predicting value in is the P/C ratio on the index as compared to the S&P 500. Let us know what you discover.
Comments
I came across this index (STALSTOX:INX)
STALSTOX:IND
which measures the "collective call" of stock asset allocation by Wall Street firms for asset allocation portfolios. The index now stands at 45ish which relates to a 45% stock weighting. 70 (70% stock allocation) is where this index in the past has peaked so in a sense its a allocation sentiment chart...what the smart minds think and are reccommending. Right now, directionally, the chart seems to be trending upwards from a low of 40.
Here's this index over the last 8 years. As the chart shows todays stock allocation reccomendation of (45) is far below the 200 day moving average of (57) and seems to be rising from a low of (42) which is lowest this index has been over the last 15 years. Sounds bullish for stocks to me.
Bee, Having said that - I track the CBOE Put/Call ratios from the data on their website. It seems to be a positive indicator. When it gets near 2 puts per call think about selling, when it gets near 1 put per call the market will start turning up. Right now it is as low as I have ever seen it. This time it didn't coincide with a market bottom but (if one were to trust such things) it says don't sell just yet.
Thanks Rbrt. Is there a particular link that would provide others of us with this data?
http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx
I am a novice and don't allocate money based on this. The only dataset I have seen any predicting value in is the P/C ratio on the index as compared to the S&P 500. Let us know what you discover.