Randal Forsyth tosses out some interesting inflation numbers in this week’s Barron’s (Up & Down Wall Street).
”… Consumer prices showed a 5% increase in the latest 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this past week, down from the 9% year-over-year peak rise recorded in 2022. But the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, was still 5.6% above the level a year earlier, and rose at a 5.1% annual clip in the latest three months. Alternative measures, such as the Atlanta Fed's core ‘sticky prices,’ rose at a 5.9% annual pace in that stretch, not much slower than the 6.5% in the past 12 months.”
Forsyth seems to think the Fed will hike at its next meeting, as does every other Tom, Dick & Harry. A notable exception is the gal from Invesco, Kristina Hooper, who appears frequently on Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week. In Friday’s program she seemed rather adamant they would not hike this time around. First time I’ve heard that view expressed from any sources I follow.
Comments
Things to watch now is the earnings reporting in order to gauge the economy. Earning expectation has already been lowered from previous quarters. Large banks reported ok but weakness of the financial sector as a whole will be reveal among the regional banks in the following weeks. If the financial sector goes down, things can get ugly.
https://reuters.com/business/finance/bigger-banks-rise-while-regionals-slump-q1-earnings-season-kicks-off-2023-04-14/
Personally, I think we are already in a rolling recession. We will have to see how the earning pressure will unfold.
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1647197271304335360
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