AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23

yogibearbull

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23

For the week ending on 3/29/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (45.6%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.5%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.9%; about average); Bull-Bear Spread was -23.1% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (57+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. The US bank hearings provided insights into the crisis as the regulators watched. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=993

hank

Fascinating. Thanks @yogibearbull.

Somewhat bemused this morning to hear the talking heads on Bloomberg pronouncing that the NASDAQ is now in “a new bull market.” Can’t seem to verify that anywhere else. Wonder if they’re basing that call on the pre-market futures which are elevated.

To counter their euphoria (which waxes and wanes day to day) they did a segment with TRP’s allocation guru Sebastian Page who thinks stocks are overextended and we’re still in a bear market.

yogibearbull

I saw that on Twitter. But +20% from the recent lows applies only to Nasdaq 100 QQQ/$NDX from the late-December lows, and not to Nasdaq Comp ONEQ/$COMPQ. Other major indexes had their lows in October and are still struggling.

Ed Yardeni, neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear, now has 4,600 for SP500. I am watching 4,300-4,600 range myself to do some asset reallocations. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-could-end-14-110609639.html

Sven

To counter their euphoria (which waxes and wanes day to day) they did a segment with TRP’s allocation guru Sebastian Page who thinks stocks are overextended and we’re still in a bear market.

I tend to agree with Sebastian Page. Others have stated that we are going through a rolling bear market. The Fed is in tough spot to tread the needle between reining in inflation while not to wrack the economy (recession).

hank

Honestly, I don’t get the feeling that we’re in a nasty bear market or that things will worsen a lot. Of course there will be a recession at some point. But I don’t think we’ll re-test the lows of 2022 - unless the economy really falls off a cliff. I get a better sense from watching the Dow which topped out around 37,000 in late ‘21 / early ‘22 and then fell to around 29,500 mid-year ‘22 as best I can determine. I think success going forward depends a lot on countries / geographic regions chosen. Some may get a boost (from currency) if dollar continues down. And also individual companies may be better bets than the total market if one is willing to take the risk of investing in individual stocks. (But it’s not a small risk.)

As the above demonstrates: “Any idiot can voice an opinion”. I’m not qualified to make such calls. Just saying how I try to position my own stuff.

Sven

There are many balls in the air right now which poses uncertainty for the investors. The inverted yield curve indicates we will enter a recession sometime, but the severity is anyone guess. Questions for us is to figure how to best position themselves as the recession arrives.