DJIA Closes Negative YTD (February 21)

hank

After a nearly 700 point drop Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in negative territory for 2023 at the close.

YTD Returns - As of 12:30 PM Wednesday, February 22

DJIA + 0.22%

S&P 500 + 4.24%

NASDAQ + 10.13%

(Numbers from Bloomberg)

One fund of recent interest here, ARKK, was ahead by more than 34% YTD going into today’s session. It fell back by more than 6% today. The fact that any fund could move like this one has over the past year might indicate how crazy the investing landscape has gotten. (Numbers from Bloomberg)

Just me or do geo-politics seem increasingly related to the market problems? Russia / Ukraine for sure. But now, just as China’s economy is emerging from its covid-related pullback, it appears relations with the U.S. are deteriorating. The balloon of course. But a lot more going on from my readings, including what appears to be China becoming more supportive of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If that’s not enough, North Korea fired off a barrage of its new solid fueled ICBMs over the weekend - one landing in the Pacific within sight of Japan. The solids are superior to liquid fueled rockets in that they’re easier to hide and can be launched without any prep on very short notice.

And you want to invest?

larryB

Nobody knows nothin, most of all me. But it seems like market wants to ignore lots of potentially bad stuff and often does. But the market doesn’t like to fight the fed and it seems like higher for longer is trending again. And that scares the hell out of the market. Or gives nervous investors a reason to sell. Another observation coming from a 74 year old is that current rates are not historically onerous. They just seem high to younger investors who haven’t a clue what REALLY high rates mean for running a business or affording a mortgage.

rforno

LarryB - agreed. Nobody knows nuttin' and markets will fluctuate. Only things you can do is either stick your head in the sand (and money in the mattress) or stay in the game and remember the markets are like flying in a plane: control what you can about the trip (eg, choice of airline, seat/class, etc) but understand that there may well be some turbulence along the flight ... and while it could be scary at times, the only way out of it is through it.

That said, I do wonder what younger financial advisors/planners/brokers are feeling or acting during market swoons and what they can advise clients outside of algorithmically-generated allocation recommendations ... for the past 20 years they've pretty much only known ZIRP environments, fed-puts, and no prolonged periods of inflation, stagflation, or chaos.

(But your point is well-taken: I had an 8%-ish condo mortgage back in 2000 (obtained via, of all places, Priceline.Com and very quickly paid off) which until recently was considered exhorbitant and OMGTERRIBLE.) Current rates are still better than what we had back then!

hank

To add to the above wisdom offered …

My single best day (and week) last year occurred while traveling outside the country, largely ignoring the markets. Poor Wi-Fi / phone connectivity would have made it near impossible to buy or sell anything.

Sven

Well said on today environment. We will stick to our plan/asset allocation. While saving and investing diligently. Everything else is far away from our control.

Junkster

https://www.ytdreturn.com/on-s-p-500/

Above link is a handy reference showing *total return* for various indexes. S@P still ahead for the year by 4.36%. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 still comfortably ahead. Dow barely positive. Recent declines in stocks and bonds have severely shaken the confidence of the bulls.

hank

Thanks @Junkster.

Looks like I got at least 1 of the averages wrong when I posted last night. I’ll correct / update those as of what Bloomberg’s website is displaying as of around 12:30 today. That’s a very useful tool you linked. I’ve used it in the past. A bit clunky to use, but shows annual returns with the dividends reinvested.

“Recent declines in stocks and bonds have severely shaken the confidence of the bulls.”

One newsletter I subscribe to dropped a sizable S&P “short position” 3 or 4 weeks ago. Talk about unfortunate timing … Glad I don’t take such advice seriously!

yogibearbull

This live StockCharts shows all of the major averages (max 5). Default to post is 1 yr, but change timeframe to YTD and click Update. I could also post screenshot if there is some issue.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$INDU&compare=$COMPQ,$SPX,$TRAN,IWM&id=p93462951093