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Yield curve most steeply inverted since early 80s / Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour on recession risk

hank
edited February 2023 in Other Investing
Not a market call on my part. Karniol-Tambour (video) is looking out months - or even years. So I don’t feel she’s necessarily making a market call either. But I do think her longer term outlook is supported by the increasingly strident interest rate talk coming from various Fed officials this week plus recent / continuing movements in the bond market. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury bond as of this morning is the most inverted since the early 1980s with the 2 year Treasury yielding 85 b/p more than the 10-year . A steep inversion has often in the past been a good indicator of approaching recessions. (Just because I’m paranoid doesn't mean there won’t be one … )

Karniol-Tambour is the newest member of Bridgewater’s 3-person investment team. She does not (to my recollection) address the inverted curve.

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