AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/1/23

yogibearbull

For the week ending on 2/1/23, neutral became the top sentiment (35.5%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (29.9%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (34.6%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed (+25 bps hike yesterday; a couple more?); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (49+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up sharply, bonds up, oil down, gold flat, dollar down. Markets have perked up & this rally since Oct lows has legs. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=919

Junkster

Don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying next week - after a record setting streak of more bears than bulls - that the bulls will finally be in charge. Elsewhere I listed all the market indexes now in bull mode with some at all times highs. If there is a worry, it is what wall of worry is left to climb as price action recently has usurped any and all of the walls. Maybe the debt showdown but that is months away. Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.

hank

Junkster said:

”Don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying … the bulls will finally be in charge … If there is a worry, it is what wall of worry is left to climb as price action recently has usurped any and all of the walls.”

Thanks @Junkster. Wasn’t sure whether to link Streisand’s version of “Happy Days Are Here Again” or Thurber’s poignant short story ending, “Don’t count your boobies until they’re hatched.”

Bottle of bubbly will suffice I hope.

My substantive takes: (1) Defensive consumer staples are getting hit hard today - and rarely are things all black or all white. (2) The Dollar has strengthened considerably today - pushing down gold, silver & the miners along with most non-dollar denominated assets. (3) One thing totally missed by the talking heads (on Bloomberg anyway) is that there’s been the ”appearance” of progress on the debt funding issue after Biden & McCarthy met yesterday.

johnN

Yes sirs

After 12 months downtrends

yogibearbull

SP500 with AAII Bull-Bear Ratio (add today's reading 0.86; more common is Bull-Bear Spread) from Twitter LINK.

carew388

+1 hank Both XLP and RHS have lost money so far in 2023.

RandiVooDoo

Junkster said:

Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.

Nasty earnings - correct
Hot employment - correct
Fleeting reaction - correct

You are 3 for 3 Junkster!

Junkster

RandiVooDoo said:

Junkster said:

Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.

Nasty earnings - correct
Hot employment - correct
Fleeting reaction - correct

You are 3 for 3 Junkster!

I was thinking more like next week. With a few hours left in trading we could easily close back near the lows. The bounce was dip buyers coming back in this morning, A jobs report like today would have sent the market down over a thousand points a few months ago. I am lightening up a tad if we do close back at the lows.

Mona

Junkster said:

Don’t think I am going out on a limb here by saying next week - after a record setting streak of more bears than bulls - that the bulls will finally be in charge. Elsewhere I listed all the market indexes now in bull mode with some at all times highs. If there is a worry, it is what wall of worry is left to climb as price action recently has usurped any and all of the walls. Maybe the debt showdown but that is months away. Or maybe some really nasty earning surprises this evening combined with a really hot employment number tomorrow. Albeit any negative reaction there would only prove fleeting.

@Junkster my friend, hibernating for the winter and getting ready to hit the trails in the spring? Then, unfortunately, you will be off the boards until next winter.