AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23

yogibearbull

For the week ending on 1/25/23, bearish became the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (28.4%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (35.0%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; economy; the Fed (higher rates longer); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (48+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Notably, this Survey changed direction so soon (in 4 weeks). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=912

Junkster

A little surprising seeing the bears continue to dominate this poll. I believe and correct me if I am wrong, the longest string of weeks ever where there have been more bears than bulls. This new bull market although over 3 months old gets no respect whatsoever - and let’s hope it remains that way.

yogibearbull

43 weeks of negative Bull Bear spread are record since Survey inception in 1987.

Observant1

Being somewhat contrarian, I welcome the bearish sentiment.

hank

It’s been a decent run past month or two. I realize most don’t pay much heed to the DJI. But I’ll note it’s near 34 K - Not too far below where it topped out in early 2022 - around 37 K if I recall. Of course the S&P and NASDAQ still deep in the weeds. Curiously, EM has turned around after getting blown away in 2022. DODEX +10% YTD.

And thanks Yogi for the update.

Junkster

hank said:

It’s been a decent run past month or two. I realize most don’t pay much heed to the DJI. But I’ll note it’s near 34 K - Not too far below where it topped out in early 2022 - around 37 K if I recall. Of course the S&P and NASDAQ still deep in the weeds. Curiously, EM has turned around after getting blown away in 2022. DODEX +10% YTD.

And thanks Yogi for the update.

I saw somewhere where the S@P Value Index is but 3.5% from its all time highs. Haven’t verified though if true. The moves off the October lows in equities and the October/ November lows in bonds have been eye catching and seemingly something much more than a bear market rally. And talk about trend persistency, most bond funds in the Preferred category have been up everyday this month.

Sven

Since November, oversea funds are making bigger move upward than those of S&P500. Weaker dollar is helping funds without currency hedging.

Mild winter weather slow energy sector’s advance. The defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are lagging behind. Quite a reversal from last year.

Biggest surprise are the bonds that are advancing across the board as if rate hike is near the top.

If this is bear rally, they are pretty broad.

hank

About -15.4% off on the S&P 500 from the high of 4796.5 set in January 22.

Possibly what @Junkster referenced … S&P Value Index:

Ticker SVX - “We measure value stocks using three factors: the ratios of book value, earnings, and sales to price. S&P Style Indices divide the complete market capitalization of each parent index into growth and value segments. Constituents are drawn from the S&P 500®.”

Source

yogibearbull

Most indexes peaked in 01/2022 although SP500-value peaked in 04/2022 and it is near its peak. Chart also shows SP500-growth (still down a lot), SP500 (down) and equal-weight SP500 (down only some).

Chart 1-Yr (Live)

Charts 01/2022- , Image https://i.ibb.co/v3tkp6B/Screenshot-2023-01-27-07-56-20.png

Derf

@yogibearbull : Thanks for the chart ybb.

Mark

From Barron's:

By Alex Eule Friday, January 27

"The January Effect. Stocks closed out another strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite, in particular, benefiting from the 2023 rebound. The tech-heavy index rose another 1% today, pushing its weekly gain to 4.3%. It's the Nasdaq's fourth-straight week in positive territory.

The S&P 500 rose 0.25% on the day and 2.5% on the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat on the day but still up 1.8% this week.

As investors look toward an end to rate hikes, growth-focused tech stocks have been the primary beneficiary. The Nasdaq is closing in on its best January in more than 20 years. With two trading days to go, the index is up 11% on the month, its best January since a 12.2% gain in January 2001.

For a lot of folks, the '01 callback will come with bad memories. At the time, the market was still dealing with the dot-com crash. After the strong January, the Nasdaq went on to fall 30% through the rest of 2001. Ultimately, the Nasdaq didn't find its bottom until October 2002."

johnN

Market breadth extremely strong and remain elevated past 3 4 wks

Part due to Tsla good er sustain rally last few days

See what will uncle Powell say in two wks. Maybe another consecutive 0.25 0.25 then stop. Inflation appeared improved compared 6 months ago

It's been a reasonable onpar Earning weeks so far

Just like that everyone forgot we had massive draws down in tech -40 45% last year /68% retracement in cryptos

Nasdaq sp500 all past 200 days ma past 24 48 hrs... Most of my cover call options expired itm didn't expect 10 12% swing in few wks