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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Jeremy "The Bear" Grantham

sma3
in Other Investing
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/

you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.

" Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"

SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.

He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.

There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change

Comments

  • LewisBraham
    I like Grantham's analysis, even when I disagree with him. He keeps investors on their toes.
  • JD_co
    Per Exhibit 3 - interesting that large equity market drawdowns have occurred just AFTER the Fed starts cutting rates. Who'da thunk it.

  • AndyJ
    edited January 2023
    Pure conjecture here: maybe it's when an econ downturn has arguably started, and sellers see a Fed rate cut as confirmation. And maybe some of the $ goes into bonds, the buyers banking on cap gains with more rate cuts.
  • hank
    edited January 2023
    Geez - Jeremy must be getting paid by word count.

    He seems most bearish on the S&P - forecasting 3200 by the end of 2023. I think it’s unfortunate most media (and investor) attention focuses on 3 indexes. Of course there are hundreds of different equity markets around the globe (location, size, types of products, etc.) Grantham does identify some markets he thinks promising. Suspect we’re not paying enough attention to some of the potential black or (brown) swans he identifies - an escalating war in Europe among them.
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