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Anyone think this move has any meaning beyond just another over reaction to real or imagined events of the last 24 hours? A flight to quality or a hint about rates? Long ago I stopped trying to time the market but guessing on interest rates seems at least worth thinking about.
@larryB, hard to know, but until today it was looking like Mr. Market wanted to blow up rates to price in the whole Fed dot-plot of what the situation may be at the end of the year, by the end of the month. It was probably overdone, with evidence of a global slowdown starting to surface.
I'd guess the switchover to acceptance of the slowdown will be in fits and starts like everything else has been, so will wait a while and assess before putting real $ into IG bonds. When I start, it'll be in etf's so I can reverse course easily if I need to.
I was around during the inflation/ very high rate pandemic of the early 80’s. I rode out two years on my boat in the Sea of Cortez,,,, living on money market interest and a favorable exchange rate. BUT I didn’t load up on long bonds and other fixed income investments near peak rates. I always admired the old guys of those days who nailed the peak and had a nice cash flow for many years. Now I am an old guy and it’s possible such a day may be coming.for me. doubt the peak rates will be as high as the eighties but rates will fall and I want to be ready for the peak. Possible? Maybe.
Comments
I'd guess the switchover to acceptance of the slowdown will be in fits and starts like everything else has been, so will wait a while and assess before putting real $ into IG bonds. When I start, it'll be in etf's so I can reverse course easily if I need to.
What are you thinking along those lines?
Yes, We did very well during that period. I hope that you are able to do the same.