MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Midyear Investing Outlook: Where to Invest Now

johnNjohnN
edited July 2022 in Other Investing

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stocks-to-buy/602844/midyear-investing-outlook-where-to-invest-now?amp


See recent ecently year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5200 to 4900, though he remains bullish. “Calibrating an exact return is less important than framing the question: Is now a good time to be in the stock market? The answer is ‘yes.’ Returns are going to be robust over the next 12 months even in light of risks.”

Do incognito search article title
Midyear Investing Outlook: Where to Invest Now


Could be soft landings vs mild recessions w Feds Ukraine economic questions/
Lots opportunities there
Sp500 may finish upper 4000s range end 2022

Comments

  • JonGaltIII
    edited July 2022
    Appreciate the post ... Where to Invest Now? That is the question. If you're not in retirement and you have some cash on the sidelines, where do you invest? You definitely want to avoid any companies that are not generating profits. It's impossible to call a bottom. Yes. Ok, so will the recession (we are in one) last 18-24 months? If so, should you wait for another 12 months before deploying cash? DCA into index funds? Which ones? S&P 500 or Small Cap or both?

    Kiplinger article "The good news is that stocks tend to do well in the first year of Fed rate hikes. Looking back some 65 years, Deutsche Bank found that 12 months following the first hike, the stock market was up 91% of the time, by an average of 7%." <-- that's some positive data.

    I'm keeping an eye on the labor market. It's a strong point at the moment but we're seeing a lot of hiring freezes and offer letters being rescinded. It appears the Tech companies are gearing up for a slowdown. Interesting times.
  • CrashCrash
    "Interesting," indeed. ....... I continue to check out the P/E for some individual stocks. I do NOT have ice water in my veins........ Therefore, small-caps do not attract me. So totally volatile!!!!!

    Even so, I trust the few single stocks I've invested in: ET. BHB. RGR.

    Macro trends are worth paying attention to. But individual companies do not necessarily fall in line.... If P/E is low, it seems to me that prospects are positive.



  • FD1000
    edited July 2022
    I don't base my investing on outlooks or prediction, it's based on big picture + several indicators (link). Both signaled high risk months ago and why I'm in MM since then with only short term trades if the charts support it. It's not the first time. I sold before 03/2020(this post is from 2/29/2020(link) and Q4/2018 and bought back much lower after risk was lower.
  • Observant1
    edited July 2022
    FD1000 said:

    I don't base my investing on outlooks or prediction, it's based on big picture + several indicators (link). Both signaled high risk months ago and why I'm in MM since then with only short term trades if the charts support it. It's not the first time. I sold before 03/2020(this post is from 2/29/2020(link) and Q4/2018 and bought back much lower after risk was lower.


    I don't base my investing decisions on actions taken by momentum traders.
    Regardless of how astute they claim to be.
    Which brings to mind, why do certain investors feel obliged to frequently post
    select trades on various anonymous investing forums?
  • ProtonAnalyst33
    Observant1 said:


    I don't base my investing decisions on actions taken by momentum traders.
    Regardless of how astute they claim to be.
    Which brings to mind, why do certain investors feel obliged to frequently post
    select trades on various anonymous investing forums?

    Would this count as an anonymous investing forum? Which others are you talking about Observant1?
  • Observant1
    edited July 2022
    Yes, this certainly would count as an anonymous investing forum.
    Other forums in this category would include the M* investing forum
    (a mere shell of its former self), Big Bang! Investors, and ArmchairInvesting.
    I'm sure there are many others...

  • CrashCrash
    edited July 2022
    And the question remains: how soon will rates come DOWN because Central Banks run up against negative growth? There's an oxymoron if ever there was one. It's a lucky thing for wifey and myself that we don't need to tap into the portfolio at all. Oil and Gas have gone from zooming upwards to being depressed. PRNEX. ET. But gunmaker RGR presses onward. Will a Repugnant Party majority after the mid-terms change the fortunes of POWW? Savage Arms is privately owned. I know a fellow who retired from there. Somehow, the guns and the ammo are never in the same place... Eh? Until ANOTHER crazy-ass nutjob shoots up a 4th of July parade. Sorry for the digression.
  • FD1000
    edited July 2022
    First, getting out isn't momentum.
    Second, I have heard so many times, you can't time the market. When I was an accumulator, I didn't care. When I got older, and had a lot more, I learned how to do it. Since 2018, retirement, I was out to MM with a max loss of less than 1%, while the SP500 lost 3 times 20% minimum.
    Third, I got back on time, not the bottom, but at much lower prices.

    If you want to swim, you can't learn it from a book, you actually, have to do it live.
  • Observant1
    edited July 2022
    FD1000 said:

    First, getting out isn't momentum.
    Second, I have heard so many times, you can't time the market. When I was an accumulator, I didn't care. When I got older, and had a lot more, I learned how to do it. Since 2018, retirement, I was out to MM with a max loss of less than 1%, while the SP500 lost 3 times 20% minimum.
    Third, I got back on time, not the bottom, but at much lower prices.

    If you want to swim, you can't learn it from a book, you actually, have to do it live.


    First, you previously described yourself as a "momo" trader.
    Second, frequent trading significantly impairs returns for many investors.
    There have been numerous studies which confirm this finding.
    The Barber/Odean study may be the best-known.
    Third, get over yourself.
    Most people don't care about your "special" trading system or that
    you supposedly averted losses and got back in at much lower prices.
  • FD1000
    edited July 2022
    As I said before, I read many articles that claimed you can't do it. I have been using my system over 20 years. Well, if you don't care, you don't. Over the years, I have learned a few techniques on several boards + my own interpretation.
    As I said before, in order to swim, you got to be in the water. My system is explained (here) + actual results that were copied directly from my brokerage.
    BTW, my portfolio (think 10/90) as of 7/5/2020, beat VWENX(about 64% stocks) for 1-3-5 years with SD for 1-3-5 year at 1.96-2.57-2.31.
Sign In or Register to comment.