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Jamie Dimon is a brilliant bank manager. He has however little record of any of his investment calls being right! If I were him, I would be constantly creating panic too. That's the only way you can influence other banks from bidding up assets too much too quickly. And sure enough, once in a while, he may even be right. Here's the question reporters need to ask people in his position: "So, Mr. Dimon, what changes have you exactly made in your personal portfolio based on your macro projections given your sophisticated and insightful outlook?" I'll tell you the answer right now: ZERO changes.
Didn't seem off the wall to me considering what's going on with inflation, quantitative tightening, Russia, oil, and commodities all at the same time. Under the circumstances, investor sentiment, technical analysis, and other usual tea leaves don't mean much to me.
I don't care how Dimon runs his personal assets. He's charting a conservative course for his bank. Seems like a good idea to me.
Well, I've been buying brokered CD's at Fidelity and Schwab lately because I don't want to deal with excessive market volatility. I'd rather lock in some 3% yields than try to make big bets on the market.
He is late for several months. Dimon isn't a good market predictor.
Months ago, my risk criteria was very elevated, I sold it all to cash (similar to Q4/2018 + 03/2020). I only trade every several weeks when I find a perfect set up and only for hours to days (last week was one for stocks, I traded NHMAX).
Big picture haven't changed much. Still high inflation, high prices of the basics such as food,oil/gas and housing, rates are going up (two 50 points in 2 months), we still have a war in Europe+supply chain problem. Risk in the market is lower but still high.
The SP500 Chart has lower lows and lowers high + the 200 days moving average is downtrend.
“There will be no recession this year, some summer increase in consumer activity on the back of reopening, China increasing monetary and fiscal measures.”
That's beautiful.
Since all this is about predicting the future, at some level, we can find full spectrum of opinions.
Dimon's interview still seems bad form to me, as CEO.
Brian Moynihan, the chairman and chief executive of Bank of America BAC, had a chance to respond, at the very same Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference where Dimon intoned his weather-themed pessimism.
“We’re in North Carolina,” he said. “You’ve got hurricanes that come every year.”
Jamie always sounds to me like he’s got half a toot on. Not that I’d hold it against him. Wondering if comment was made before or after lunch? In the town I grew up in the local bankers were the worst of the lot. Rarely blew a sober breath after lunch. Re Diamon … Sometime ago he criticized crypto as “worthless.” Although it wasn’t worthless, many crypto currencies took a big hit only months later. If you listened to him, you probably came out better off.
As for that “hurricane” … A growing land war in Europe and a growing U.S. role providing weaponry; a tightening Federal Reserve; A near total Covid lockdown in China (easing at present); Supply chain shortages; Near dysfunctional politics; Growing firearm related violence here at home. 21 killed in Texas a week ago and 4 more killed overnight in Oklahoma. All told, it’s enough to make you not want to get out of bed in the morning - or buy stocks.
They all have their story to tell. And it’s hard to know to what extent they’re “talking their book” and trying to move their stock or a segment of the market this way or that. But I like to attribute to them the best of motives and like to think they’re looking out for the best interests of we small individual investors.
Others I’ve followed somewhat this year:
- George Soros thinks WW III has already begun - and I’d give about 1 in 3 odds that he’s correct, Could be catastrophic for equities.
- Ray Dalio thinks cash is trash. He’d prefer most anything to cash and has liked gold for a long time. He also thinks the tremendous wealth disparity in this country spells civil strife in coming years. Again, not good for equities.
- Rick Rieder, who’s involved in multi-asset strategies at Blackrock, loves cash presently. Interviewed on Bloomberg in the past month he commented, “We’re holding on to cash with both hands!”
- Howard Marks was on Bloomberg TV yesterday remarking on the good values that have now developed in the markets - particularly high yield bonds. His approach is to grab off whatever value he can see right away rather than waiting for the price to fall further. Overall, he views the risk markets as offering much better value than 6 months ago. And he’s picking up bargains.
- Larry Fink of Blackrock is being interviewed on Bloomberg as I write. He scoffed at Diamond’s “hurricane” analogy saying he thinks it was intended to represent just one possible outcome. Fink doesn’t think the Fed can solve the inflation problem with the tools they have. Will remain high for 2-3 years, but moderate further out. Fink commented that there hasn’t been much change in how individuals are positioned in his funds. Most are staying the course.
- I subscribe to James Stack’s InvestTech newsletter. Proprietary material. But I suspect it’s widely known that he’s been recommending for some time that individuals maintain a 50-60% long exposure to equities and hold the rest in cash + an inverse S&P fund. He’s expecting trouble ahead - not unlike Diamond’s “hurricane.” I march to my own drummer - but take Stack’s views into consideration.
- I subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s “Daily Rap”. When he’s not wasting time criticizing the alleged ill effects of Covid vaccines, Bill makes a compellingly bearish case for equities. (But it may take months or years to play out). Also likes gold and the metals. Been wrong a long time. But the metals are spiking big time today. Miners up 4 - 5% on the day.
Of all the commentators mentioned above, Howard Marks makes the most sense to me. Generally does. And I’ve fallen asleep more than once listing to the audio version of one of his books.
"A growing land war in Europe and a growing U.S. role providing weaponry; a tightening Federal Reserve; A near total Covid lockdown in China (easing at present); Supply chain shortages; Near dysfunctional politics; Growing firearm related violence here at home. 21 killed in Texas a week ago and 4 more killed overnight in Oklahoma. All told, it’s enough to make you not want to get out of bed in the morning - or buy stocks."
To invest at all means you believe in the future ... that the world economies will continue to grow and, in fact, that the world ultimately will be a better place.
So, yes, there is certainly a lot of news and opinion that says it isn't so.
Charles, this above what you write is the underlying framework. Pessimism sells. Far more writing and research will always be done on what's not working. That's ok, because maybe we progress as a species. Status quo meanwhile continues to do all the heavy lifting from day to day. It would be easier if one of them was always wrong and the other right, but then where would the fun be.
My earlier pessimistic summation was an attempt to identify Dimon’s perceived “hurricane”. (What was he thinking about?) Were Sir John Templeton still alive I believe he’d eloquently make the contrary case by painting a most optimistic future. It’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks. So I’ll probably own a diversified portfolio, including equities, for as long as I’m around.
Comments
Seems near irresponsible to me and inconsistent with recent comments I believe when he was trying to win shareholders back.
I don't care how Dimon runs his personal assets. He's charting a conservative course for his bank. Seems like a good idea to me.
Months ago, my risk criteria was very elevated, I sold it all to cash (similar to Q4/2018 + 03/2020). I only trade every several weeks when I find a perfect set up and only for hours to days (last week was one for stocks, I traded NHMAX).
Big picture haven't changed much. Still high inflation, high prices of the basics such as food,oil/gas and housing, rates are going up (two 50 points in 2 months), we still have a war in Europe+supply chain problem. Risk in the market is lower but still high.
The SP500 Chart has lower lows and lowers high + the 200 days moving average is downtrend.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-says-stocks-can-climb-out-of-this-hole
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-top-wall-street-quant-sees-s-p-500-taking-back-all-its-losses-by-yearend-11654117457
I guess they have all their bases covered.
That's beautiful.
Since all this is about predicting the future, at some level, we can find full spectrum of opinions.
Dimon's interview still seems bad form to me, as CEO.
(Instant Classic) Excerpt (bold added):
Brian Moynihan, the chairman and chief executive of Bank of America BAC, had a chance to respond, at the very same Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference where Dimon intoned his weather-themed pessimism.
“We’re in North Carolina,” he said. “You’ve got hurricanes that come every year.”
As for that “hurricane” … A growing land war in Europe and a growing U.S. role providing weaponry; a tightening Federal Reserve; A near total Covid lockdown in China (easing at present); Supply chain shortages; Near dysfunctional politics; Growing firearm related violence here at home. 21 killed in Texas a week ago and 4 more killed overnight in Oklahoma. All told, it’s enough to make you not want to get out of bed in the morning - or buy stocks.
They all have their story to tell. And it’s hard to know to what extent they’re “talking their book” and trying to move their stock or a segment of the market this way or that. But I like to attribute to them the best of motives and like to think they’re looking out for the best interests of we small individual investors.
Others I’ve followed somewhat this year:
- George Soros thinks WW III has already begun - and I’d give about 1 in 3 odds that he’s correct, Could be catastrophic for equities.
- Ray Dalio thinks cash is trash. He’d prefer most anything to cash and has liked gold for a long time. He also thinks the tremendous wealth disparity in this country spells civil strife in coming years. Again, not good for equities.
- Rick Rieder, who’s involved in multi-asset strategies at Blackrock, loves cash presently. Interviewed on Bloomberg in the past month he commented, “We’re holding on to cash with both hands!”
- Howard Marks was on Bloomberg TV yesterday remarking on the good values that have now developed in the markets - particularly high yield bonds. His approach is to grab off whatever value he can see right away rather than waiting for the price to fall further. Overall, he views the risk markets as offering much better value than 6 months ago. And he’s picking up bargains.
- Larry Fink of Blackrock is being interviewed on Bloomberg as I write. He scoffed at Diamond’s “hurricane” analogy saying he thinks it was intended to represent just one possible outcome. Fink doesn’t think the Fed can solve the inflation problem with the tools they have. Will remain high for 2-3 years, but moderate further out. Fink commented that there hasn’t been much change in how individuals are positioned in his funds. Most are staying the course.
- I subscribe to James Stack’s InvestTech newsletter. Proprietary material. But I suspect it’s widely known that he’s been recommending for some time that individuals maintain a 50-60% long exposure to equities and hold the rest in cash + an inverse S&P fund. He’s expecting trouble ahead - not unlike Diamond’s “hurricane.” I march to my own drummer - but take Stack’s views into consideration.
- I subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s “Daily Rap”. When he’s not wasting time criticizing the alleged ill effects of Covid vaccines, Bill makes a compellingly bearish case for equities. (But it may take months or years to play out). Also likes gold and the metals. Been wrong a long time. But the metals are spiking big time today. Miners up 4 - 5% on the day.
Of all the commentators mentioned above, Howard Marks makes the most sense to me. Generally does. And I’ve fallen asleep more than once listing to the audio version of one of his books.
"A growing land war in Europe and a growing U.S. role providing weaponry; a tightening Federal Reserve; A near total Covid lockdown in China (easing at present); Supply chain shortages; Near dysfunctional politics; Growing firearm related violence here at home. 21 killed in Texas a week ago and 4 more killed overnight in Oklahoma. All told, it’s enough to make you not want to get out of bed in the morning - or buy stocks."
To invest at all means you believe in the future ... that the world economies will continue to grow and, in fact, that the world ultimately will be a better place.
So, yes, there is certainly a lot of news and opinion that says it isn't so.
But maybe there always is.
My earlier pessimistic summation was an attempt to identify Dimon’s perceived “hurricane”. (What was he thinking about?) Were Sir John Templeton still alive I believe he’d eloquently make the contrary case by painting a most optimistic future. It’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks. So I’ll probably own a diversified portfolio, including equities, for as long as I’m around.
Thanks guys for the feedback.