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Some YTD Stats

hank
edited March 2013 in Off-Topic
It was a good year for equity investors. (link) http://news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html
Mark's post noted our brains don't function very well dealing with boredom. Past couple weeks for market watchers feels like their new Jag has slowed from 90 to 25 mph. Got me thinking ... if markets went nowhere from here in 2013, it's still been a fine year for equity investors. That's a possibility. Ted's link notes that big equity gains typically come during short but violent market rallies - followed by long relatively stable periods. ... YTD gains as of March 20:

DOW + 11.42%
S&P 500 + 9.82%
NASDAQ + 7.77%

On the "seasoned" side of retirement, I checked a couple risk-averse funds at Price which might better reflect some of our real-life investment approaches than do those raw market averages.

T. Rowe Price Retirement 2005 (TRRFX) YTD +3.21%. Designed for someone about 8 years into retirement, it"s currently positioned about 44% stocks and 3% "other" (probably their Real Assets fund). Remainder is fixed income.

T. Rowe Price Retirement Income (TRRIX) YTD + 3.15%. It's tailored to investors who retired prior to 2005, and generally holds about 40% equities with minimal (if anything) in Real Assets. (Unlike Price's other Retirement funds, TRRIX doesn't change its allocation to a more conservative stance over time, but instead remains fairly statically positioned.)

By contrast, cash and cash alternatives have suffered.
Price's Ultra-Short (TRBUX) has gained just +0.07 YTD.
RiverPark's Short Term High Yield (RPHYX) is up +0.87% YTD.

Quadrupling any of the above YTD figures (X4) provides a rough "full-year" approximation. (How does +45% on the Dow sound?)

Inflation? That's anybody's guess. The government would probably peg it in the 2-4% annual area today - If you trust their figures. (One indicator: Social Security recipients received a +1.7% "cost-of-living" adjustment for 2013.) So ... if 100% in cash you're loosing purchasing power. If invested more in-line with the S&P, you're greatly outdistancing inflation. The two conservative funds mentioned are easily outpacing cash and also more than keeping pace with inflation. (Actual outcomes will vary depending on tax situation.)

And Apologies ... None of this will help you make $$ fast or decide whether to buy or sell today (reasons I think many visit MFO). It may, however, help put things in perspective.

Regards.




Comments

  • scott
    edited March 2013
    Best Holding YTD: WP Carey (+29.88%)
    Worst Holding YTD: Glencore (-5.75%)

    In between some good, some so-so, some meh.
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