What market valuation metrics / tools / indexes do you use?

hank

I ask because I’m at a loss. Hopefully some of you have a firmer grip on where we are than I do. I generally look at return on funds I’ve either owned at one time or follow regularly to try to get a bearing. A few I’ve used as reliable benchmarks in years past are bleeding now - normally a signal that it’s a good time to buy.

TRRIX -8.7% YTD

PRSIX -9.4% YTD

TRBCX -25% YTD

The above have lagged far behind their historical performance, Other than for the aberrant 2007-2009 severe market turmoil / destruction, I can’t remember anything close to those numbers. (Maybe briefly in March 2020?)

I also monitor the Dow & the S&P thinking that:

- a 10% near term drop looks interesting

- a 20% drop looks inviting

- a 30% drop seems compelling

Currently, the Dow is off 9.25% this year and the S&P down 13.3%.

However, this time it may be different. The conundrum of higher inflation, Fed tightening, war in Europe may have tilted the tables so that past indicators are no longer reliable.

Here’s an old thread from last October about Buying the Dip recovered from the trash bin. In it I commented: “I’ll bet you a nickel the Dow closes below 34,000 again at some future point this year.” I was wrong. The Dow stayed above that level thru December 31. However, we all know where it’s gone this year. The Dow closed at 32,977 Friday.

Bobpa

I use Merrimans Moderate Portfolio of Schwab index funds as a benchmark. According to Morningstar down -8.78%.
https://paulmerriman.com/schwab-2021/

carew388

Even VWINX -7.69 % AVEFX -3.94 %

Observant1

I use various benchmarks for different categories.

U.S. Total Market - VTSAX
Large Blend - VFIAX
Small Blend - IJR
Foreign Large Blend - VTIAX
Interm. Core Bond - VBTLX
Interm. Core-Plus Bond - IUSB

I combine VTSAX, VTIAX, and VBTLX in proportion to my portfolio's overall U.S. equity,
foreign equity, and fixed-income holdings to create an imperfect portfolio benchmark.