Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q1–April 11, 2022)

yogibearbull

Pg L3: Funds for INFLATIONARY times:
Real-Assets: AAAX, PZRMX, GSG
Equity: ACSTX, FLCSX, IWM
Bonds: DODIX, FTHRX, VIPSX, PRFRX, SRLN
Savings I-Bonds

Pg L7: Data on the disaster in bond funds notes outflows and sharp declines: Treasury TLT -10.9%, corporates LQD -8.7%, total bond market VBMFX -6.5%, muni MUB -5.7%, HY HYG -5.4%. Data on several poorly performing equity funds is also provided (growth, international, China, emerging markets).

Pg 16 (Better fit here): There are opportunities after an epic selloff in BONDS. Lot of rate hikes ahead may be in the market as the FED has been talking aggressively. Bonds may also be attractive for those who think that core inflation will come down later. But be careful as actual monetary tightening has barely started.
Munis: VWITX, BTT, NEA
Treasuries: SHY, TLT, TIP; Savings I-Bonds
Corporates: PRCIX, MDFIX (mostly CEFs), VCSH, AGG
HY: PRFRX, HYG, BXSL
Preferreds: PFF; individual JPM-M, Qrate-P
Convertibles: PACIX, CWB

Pg L34: In 2022/Q1 (SP500 -4.60%): Among general equity funds, the best was mid-cap-value -0.23% (yes, negative) and the worst were MC-growth -13.62%, multi-cap-growth -12.69%, small-cap-growth -12.52%; ALL categories were negative. Among other equity funds, the best were natural resources +32.98%, Lat Am +22.47%, precious metals +13.71% and the worst were China -19.22%, Japan -13.19%, science & technology -13.12%, global multi-cap-growth -13.08%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI -4.10%, world income -6.17% (not very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s).
LINK

Crash

Thanks, yogi. My confirmation-bias is pleased. I haven't done EVERYTHING wrong.

davfor

yogibearbull said:

Pg 16 (Better fit here): There are opportunities after an epic selloff in BONDS. Lot of rate hikes ahead may be in the market as the FED has been talking aggressively. Bonds may also be attractive for those who think that core inflation will come down later. But be careful as actual monetary tightening has barely started.
Munis: VWITX, BTT, NEA
Treasuries: SHY, TLT, TIP; Savings I-Bonds
Corporates: PRCIX, MDFIX (mostly CEFs), VCSH, AGG
HY: PRFRX, HYG, BXSL
Preferreds: PFF; individual JPM-M, Qrate-P
Convertibles: PACIX, CWB

LINK

Yes. Lots of recent pain in the bond market. And, yes, it makes sense to be on the lookout for upping my allotment to bonds (that will be welcome after several years of struggling to locate good options among bond investments). But, inflation is still raging and the Fed's tightening cycle is just beginning. There appears to be a good case to be made for the painfully high rate of inflation not coming to an end soon and for the bond market having further to fall. So, its too soon for me to increase my allocation to bonds.

Here is one short article from this morning's reading about some of the factors that are likely to influence the course of inflation for the balance of the year:

U.S. Inflation May Peak in March, But It’s a Slow Go to Fed’s 2%